Cold fronts may continue to move across the country until mid-November, bringing turbulent weather conditions, while very warm temperatures are expected over parts of the country this week and next.
By Alani Janeke, Senior Journalist at African Farming
The stormy conditions with hail and strong winds that affected parts of North West, the Free State, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal over the past week were caused by cold air moving in from the south and merging with warmer, tropical air from the north. The cold front caused minimum temperatures to drop to near freezing in places over the southern parts of the country.
The combination of cold air from the south and warmer tropical air from the north leads to stormy conditions when the two air masses collide, says independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg. The warmer tropical air contains more moisture than the cold, dry air from the south, and when these air masses meet, the resulting cooling causes the moisture to condense. This creates both horizontal and vertical air movement, leading to stormy conditions that are often accompanied by tornadoes or very strong winds.
Also read: Highveld farmers wake up to frost – but maize can withstand it
Further Cold Fronts May Bring Rain and Hail in the Coming Weeks
Van den Berg says that with at least three cold front systems expected to move across the country over the next three weeks, there is cause for concern about further stormy conditions.
In recent seasons, little rain fell during spring and early summer – the period when the risk of hail is highest. This season, however, above-average rainfall was already recorded in September, followed by further rain and hail in October.
The three frontal systems expected over the next few weeks are likely to occur around 24-25 October, 30-31 October, and during the first week of November.
Also read: Tornadoes and lightning: Stormy weather could persist
Central to Eastern Areas Could See Above-Average Rainfall
Less rain is forecast over the summer rainfall region in the coming days. Over the central parts of the country, only a few light showers are possible until around 26 October, with rainfall improving again from 27 October – especially from 30 October onward. Rainfall in excess of 20 mm is possible from 28 October through the first week of November over North West, the Free State, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, the southern parts of Limpopo and the northern parts of the Eastern Cape. Less rain may occur west of these areas, Van den Berg says.
In the longer term, conditions are expected to improve significantly over the central to eastern parts of the country from around 10 November, when average to above-average rainfall is likely. However, Van den Berg says that westwards – particularly over the Northern Cape and the western parts of North West – the chances of rainfall remain below average for most of November.
In the meantime, dry conditions will persist over most of the winter rainfall region. Light rain may occur over the central to eastern parts of the Western Cape around 24-25 October and again towards the end of the month, but in most cases, it will only result in cloudy conditions.
The likelihood of dam levels being replenished in the coming weeks remains low. Dam levels in the Garden Route are dropping by an average of 1% to 2% per week, and if there is no top-up, dams could be quite low by early 2026, Van den Berg says, especially given the area’s increased water consumption during the festive season.
Also read: Above-average rain expected from November to January
Minimums Drop Below 5°C While Western Interior Faces Warm Conditions
The short-lived sharp drop in minimum temperatures last week is not yet a thing of the past. From 25 to 27 October, minimum temperatures could again drop below 5°C in parts of the winter rainfall region, including Ceres (1°C), Paarl (3°C), Robertson (4°C), Clanwilliam (4°C), the Langkloof (4°C) and the Hex River Valley (4°C).
Around 26 and 27 October, the mercury could fall even further north – to 2°C at Barkly East in the Eastern Cape, 4°C at Aliwal North and 1°C at Zastron in the southern Free State.
Van den Berg says that over the western and northwestern parts of the interior, very warm conditions could develop around 23 October, with temperatures of 34°C or higher predicted for most of November. Moderate to warm conditions may also prevail over the central to eastern interior in the coming weeks, although prolonged extreme heat is not expected.
Very high temperatures – from the mid to upper 30s, reaching just below 40°C – may occur along the West Coast from 20 to 22 October, as well as from 28 to 31 October.
WATCH | Overberg farmers hit hard by sudden hailstorm
Also read: Heavy hailstorms hit parts of the summer rainfall region
