The South African agricultural landscape painted a complex picture during the week ending 24 October, with commodity prices swinging dramatically across different sectors. Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Commercial, has compiled a comprehensive analysis that reveals both opportunities and challenges facing farmers and consumers alike.
By Maile Matsimela, Digital Editor at African Farming
Meat Markets Heat Up as Holiday Season Approaches
The red meat sector experienced a notable surge as South Africans began preparing for the upcoming holiday season. According to Makube’s analysis, premium beef prices continued their impressive climb, with Class A beef reaching R72.04 per kilogram, representing a solid 1.6% increase from the previous week. Even more striking was the year-on-year comparison, showing a remarkable 34.1% price appreciation that reflects the strong demand for quality meat products.
The mutton market followed a similar trajectory, though with more modest gains. Class A sheep prices edged up by 0.6% to R106.69 per kilogram, while the broader mutton market saw a slight dip of 0.3% to R78.15 per kilogram. However, the annual perspective tells a more compelling story, with feeder lamb prices surging 29.8% compared to the same period last year.
Also read: Market Pulse | High meat prices drive up food costs
Pork producers also found reasons to smile, as baconer prices jumped 2.4% to R37.78 per kilogram, while porker prices gained 1.2% to reach R38.15 per kilogram. The annual gains in pork pricing, hovering around 14-15%, suggest sustained consumer demand for this protein source.
The poultry sector, traditionally seen as the more affordable protein option, remained relatively stable. Fresh whole bird prices held steady at R40.74 per kilogram, while frozen alternatives saw modest movement. Interestingly, import parity prices for US poultry dropped significantly by 12.4%, potentially offering some relief to processors dependent on imported products.
Grain Markets Dance to Global Rhythms
The grains sector presented a tale of two commodities, with maize and wheat moving in opposite directions. Makube’s data shows that both white and yellow maize futures gained substantial ground during the month, with December 2025 white maize contracts climbing 4.0% to R3,810 per tonne, while yellow maize futures surged even more dramatically, posting a 5.9% monthly gain to reach R3,698 per tonne.
This upward momentum in maize pricing reflects several underlying factors, including stronger global demand and currency fluctuations that have made South African maize more competitive in international markets. For local consumers, however, these price increases translate to higher costs for basic food staples and animal feed.
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Wheat markets moved in the opposite direction, with December 2025 contracts declining 1.7% to R5,897 per tonne. This divergence between maize and wheat pricing creates interesting dynamics for both farmers making planting decisions and food manufacturers adjusting their input strategies.
Oilseeds Tell a Mixed Story
The oilseed sector reflected the complexity of global agricultural markets, with sunflower and soybean prices moving in different directions. Sunflower futures faced headwinds, with December 2025 contracts dropping 3.8% to R9,906 per tonne. This decline suggests either improved supply prospects or weakening demand for sunflower oil and related products.
Conversely, soybean markets showed resilience, with December 2025 futures climbing 6.9% to R7 407 per tonne. This strength in soybean pricing supports farmers who have allocated land to this protein-rich crop, while potentially increasing costs for livestock producers who rely on soybean meal for animal feed.
Vegetable Markets Experience Wild Swings
Perhaps nowhere was market volatility more evident than in the fresh produce sector, where vegetable prices demonstrated the dramatic swings that characterize seasonal agricultural markets. Makube’s analysis reveals some truly spectacular price movements that would have caught both farmers and consumers off guard.
Butternut prices provided the week’s most dramatic story, rocketing upward by an astounding 77.26% to reach R11.52 per kilogram. This surge reflects supply constraints that can occur when weather patterns or seasonal factors limit production. For consumers, this means butternut temporarily became a luxury item rather than an affordable vegetable staple.
Also read: Rain shakes up vegetable prices
Tomato markets moved in the opposite direction, with prices tumbling 15.93% to R8.93 per kilogram. This decline suggests improved supply conditions, potentially providing relief to households that rely on tomatoes as a dietary staple. The contrast between butternut and tomato pricing illustrates how quickly supply and demand dynamics can shift in fresh produce markets.
Potato prices bucked the downward trend in some vegetables, gaining 11.33% during the week. Meanwhile, cabbage and carrot prices experienced significant declines both weekly and annually, suggesting abundant supply conditions for these particular crops.
Fruit Markets Show Seasonal Patterns
The fruit sector demonstrated the seasonal nature of agricultural production, with mango prices leading the charge with an impressive 75.0% year-on-year increase to R13.81 per kilogram. This substantial price appreciation reflects the seasonal nature of mango production and strong consumer demand for this popular fruit.
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Other fruits showed more mixed performance, with bananas, oranges, and pears experiencing annual declines. Orange prices, in particular, fell 38.9% compared to the previous year, suggesting abundant citrus supplies or possibly reduced export demand.
Global Commodities Feel International Pressure
Sugar markets reflected global oversupply concerns, with ICE sugar futures declining significantly. March 2026 contracts fell 5.7% during the week and 13.4% for the month, reaching 14.37 US cents per pound. These declines suggest that global sugar production is outpacing demand, creating challenging conditions for local sugar producers.
The fiber sector showed mixed results, with wool prices maintaining relative stability while cotton futures experienced minor fluctuations. South African wool prices, such as 19-micron wool at R217.36 per kilogram, reflected steady international demand for quality fiber products.
Currency and Global Factors Shape Local Markets
Throughout Makube’s analysis, the influence of global market forces becomes apparent. Import and export parity prices across various commodities reflect how exchange rate movements and international supply and demand dynamics affect local agricultural markets. The weaker rand has generally pushed up import parity prices, making imported agricultural products more expensive while potentially improving the competitiveness of South African exports.
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