Stormy weather to continue into mid-November

The stormy conditions experienced in recent weeks are expected to continue through the coming weeks.

By Alani Janeke, Senior Journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad

Since September, storm activity over parts of South Africa has been driven by tropical moisture interacting with cold fronts moving across the country. Where these two systems meet, severe weather often follows.

Over the past week, heavy rain, hail and gale-force winds were reported in several areas, including Rosendal, Bethlehem and Warden in the Free State; Nigel and Pretoria in Gauteng; and Standerton in Mpumalanga. These types of conditions – including isolated tornadoes – are expected to persist for the next few weeks and may even extend westwards. The period between 5 and 14 November is likely to bring particularly strong winds and hail.

Although rainfall remains patchy, widespread showers occurred in most provinces over the past week, except in the winter rainfall region, the western Northern Cape, and the south-western parts of the Eastern Cape.

Rain also fell in the Western Cape around 26 October, although it was generally light – less than 10mm in most areas. Between 10mm and 20mm was recorded along the Garden Route in towns such as Mossel Bay, George and Knysna.

“As for further rainfall in the winter rainfall region, it remains unfavourable until about the last week of November, when light rain is possible from 23 November onwards. Around 6–8 November there is also a chance of light rain along the Garden Route,” says independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg.

Also read: Hail, storms and fluctuating temperatures expected until mid-November

Considerable Rain Expected Over Summer Rainfall Region 

Good rainfall is forecast for the summer rainfall region over the next two weeks. Rain lasting several days is also expected over the western parts of the country, including the Northern Cape, from 7 November.

Van den Berg says this is excellent news for livestock farmers, as the rain will help pastures recover and grow. However, it is less favourable for grape producers.

“Wet and humid conditions increase the risk of diseases and pests in vineyards,” he says. “After a very good winter with many cold units, we’re looking at one of the largest table grape harvests on record – and it would be very unfortunate if the grapes were damaged.”

Further good rainfall is also expected in November and December over southern Namibia, where the first showers have already begun.

Also read: Good news for farmers: Above-average summer rainfall expected

Challenges During Planting Season

Van den Berg says the rain over the summer grain areas in recent weeks has made some fields too wet for planting, and delays are being experienced in completing sowing.

“Forecasts remain positive for more rain across large parts of the summer grain belt over the next two weeks. Fairly cloudy conditions are likely, with several rainy days in a row.”

Grain farmers in the cooler eastern production areas – such as the Eastern Free State, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal – are encouraged to complete planting within the next three weeks.

“Late plantings often carry a higher risk of early frost at the end of summer, which can cause damage,” Van den Berg warns. “It’s essential not to plant too late.”

Also read: Above-average rain expected from November to January

Temperatures

Between 6 and 8 November, minimum temperatures over the southern and south-eastern parts of the country may drop below 10°C, and again from 15 to 18 November.

Maximum temperatures, however, have risen sharply in recent weeks and are expected to remain hot to very hot – reaching 35°C or higher over the western Northern Cape, the West Coast, and much of the winter rainfall region during the next 7–10 days, extending into the Eastern Cape.

“Temperatures as high as 43°C may occur along the West Coast in towns such as Vredendal, Clanwilliam and Lutzville,” Van den Berg says. “Maximums above 35°C may also occur across large parts of the Western Cape. In the Northern Cape, towns such as Onseepkans and Pella could experience 40°C or higher.”

In contrast, more moderate temperatures – around 30°C – are expected over traditionally hot areas in Limpopo, such as Lephalale (Ellisras) and Musina, mainly due to the increased cloud cover and rainfall.