South African motorists can expect significant relief at the pumps in November, according to economic analysis by Koketso Mano, Senior Economist at FNB. “Fuel prices will fall in November. The inland 95 petrol price will decrease by over 50 cents per litre, while wholesale diesel prices will decrease by around 20 cents per litre,” Mano explained.
By Maile Matsimela, Digital Editor at African Farming
Mano attributes the favourable price adjustments to specific market conditions during the review period. “The changes this month were dictated by both softer average international product prices, as well as a stronger rand, between the review period between September and October,” she noted.
This combination has created favourable conditions for South African consumers facing ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
Also read: Good news: Diesel and petrol prices drop on Wednesday
Global Oil Market Dynamics
According to Mano’s analysis, the international oil market presents a complex picture of competing pressures. She noted that brent crude oil prices softened during the period reviewed, which influenced the recent fuel price adjustments.
The FNB economist detailed how market expectations initially influenced pricing: “There are growing expectations that supply is growing, and that initially pushed prices to around $60 per barrel.”
However, strategic decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have shifted the market dynamics. “OPEC’s decision to pause output growth at the start of 2026 supported prices,” Mano observed. “Actual output growth from that group has been slow to recover, as some members have slowed overproduction while others are battling to ramp up capacity”.
Geopolitical Factors and Supply Concerns
Mano highlighted the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on oil markets. “The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to threaten physical Russian output, while recent additional sanctions should slow orders for Russian oil. So this has supported the lift in benchmark prices towards $65 per barrel.”
Looking ahead, the FNB economist anticipates continued market uncertainty. “What we anticipate is that volatility should persist, but prices should remain within a narrow range.”
Also read: Best young livestock handlers: Meet the students mastering farm animals
Currency Pressures and Economic Outlook
Although the rand showed strength during the fuel price review period, Mano pointed to recent challenges facing South Africa’s currency. “Moving to the rand, we’ve seen a weakening as the market tries to recalibrate expectations on the next Fed cut,” she noted.
The economist also highlighted commodity market pressures. “Movements in commodity prices have not been very supportive. So while gold prices have come under pressure, oil prices have rebounded. And should these things be sustained, they will weigh on South Africa’s terms of trade.”
Mano cautioned about potential currency pressures. “So unfortunately we may see pressure on the rand.”
Balancing Economic Forces
Despite these challenges, Mano identified several factors that could provide support for the rand. “We still see persistent US macroeconomic uncertainty as well as public finance instability. And these remain key themes that should contain the dollar,” she explained.
For South Africa specifically, the FNB economist pointed to domestic fundamentals. “The rand should be upheld by improving local activity, continued structural reform and prudent macroeconomic policies. So we still think the rand should find support from that,” she said.
Also read: Farm-level inflation high, shows first-of-a-kind input cost index
Inflation Implications
Mano provided a nuanced view of the inflation impact from the fuel price changes. “This decision in fuel prices will see monthly fuel inflation falling in November. However, fuel should sustain year-on-year inflation in October and November, adding to annual headline inflationary pressures.”
This analysis reflects the complex interplay of global and domestic economic factors that continue to shape South Africa’s economic landscape.
Also read:
Alternatives getting better, but still not outperforming diesel engines
Diesel refunds: Compliance challenges for farmers
South Africa’s consumer food price inflation rises again
