Good rainfall has been recorded across large parts of the summer rainfall region since 6 November, and more rain is expected up to 25 November.

By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad

A cloudburst contributed to the more than 150 mm measured in Kuruman last week. Heavy showers also occurred elsewhere in the Northern Cape – about 110 mm was recorded at Deben, 41 mm at Postmasburg and 33 mm at Kathu.

Parts of KwaZulu-Natal also received heavy rain, especially around Newcastle, where a severe hailstorm hit on Sunday.

The central regions received less rain. In some areas of the northern Free State, such as Koppies and Heilbron, less than 10 mm was measured; the same was true for most of the Eastern Cape. More rain is expected in these regions as the system moves eastwards.

Independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg says although the rain in the Northern Cape is welcome – especially for livestock farmers – it could cause problems for table-grape producers, as wet and humid conditions may lead to disease and cause grape berries, which are almost ready for harvest, to split.

The weather system responsible for the good rainfall is moving eastwards, and heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday in the Free State, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, the eastern parts of North West, KwaZulu-Natal, and the north-eastern parts of the Eastern Cape and southern Limpopo.

Also watch: Bakkie washes away as rain brings relief for some Northern Cape farmers

Daily Rain Expected: 14–25 November

Van den Berg says weather models indicate that further rain may fall almost daily from Friday, 14 November, until Tuesday, 25 November. Rainfall is also expected farther west again from 19 to 24 November – as far west as Onseepkans and Pella in the Northern Cape (more than 200 km west of Upington).

Heavy rain is possible over especially the central to eastern regions, with more than 50 mm likely in the eastern Free State, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, the eastern parts of North West and southern Limpopo.

Flooding may occur because the soils are already quite saturated, Van den Berg warns. “The biggest danger is the development of strong low-pressure cells or supercells that produce very heavy, high-intensity rainfall over small areas – like we saw in Kuruman and Newcastle.”

The expected rain could affect planting, especially in the eastern regions.

Although planting is well under way in these regions, there are still many hectares that must be planted. Planting done later than the end of November is often at risk of frost in April or May, because slower heat accumulation in the eastern regions means slower crop development, Van den Berg says.

In the central and western regions, planting can continue for the next six weeks, but the forecast rain over the coming two weeks could also create very wet conditions there, which may delay planting.

Also read: Four seasons in one week: Extreme weather expected across South Africa

Winter Rainfall Region and Eastern Cape

Van den Berg says dam levels in the Eastern Cape are still fairly good, although the levels of smaller dams – especially in the Langkloof – are dropping fast. If good rain does not fall soon to refill them, these dams may be almost empty by February and/or March 2026.

Rainfall along the Garden Route was well below average during winter. Van den Berg says rain prospects for places like George and Mossel Bay should improve from 18 November. Between 15 mm and 20 mm could fall before the end of November, but this will not significantly improve dam levels.

In the rest of the winter rainfall region, the Overberg could receive between 20 mm and 25 mm around 20–22 November. Cloudy and humid conditions are forecast for the south-western regions from about 20–24 November. This could hinder the harvesting of winter grains.

Although very hot conditions will persist until around 20 November – especially along the West Coast and neighbouring areas – moderate maximum temperatures below 30°C are expected for the rest of November and most of December. These lower temperatures will help reduce water use, Van den Berg says.