Market Pulse | Farmers save money on feed as grain prices drop while meat prices swing

South Africa’s agricultural landscape presents a tale of contrasts this week, with commodity prices swinging between optimism and caution across different sectors. From the red meat markets showing resilience despite short-term pressures to grain markets finding their footing after months of uncertainty, the latest agrimetrics data compiled by Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Commercial, reveals an intricate web of market forces at play.

By Maile Matsimela, Digital Editor at African Farming

Livestock Sector Weathers Short-Term Storms While Building Long-Term Strength

The red meat industry finds itself in a particularly fascinating position, where weekly fluctuations mask a broader narrative of substantial year-on-year growth. Paul Makube’s analysis reveals that whilst beef producers are experiencing some immediate headwinds, with Class A beef prices retreating by 1.7% in the past week and Class C showing a marginal 0.1% decline, the bigger picture tells a remarkably different story.

“The year-on-year increases we’re seeing in the livestock sector are quite extraordinary,” explains Makube, pointing to beef prices that have surged by more than 33% compared to the same period last year. This dramatic uplift extends across the cattle spectrum, with weaner calves commanding prices 28% higher than twelve months ago, despite a modest 0.6% weekly dip.

Also read: Market Pulse | South African agricultural markets navigate mixed fortunes

The sheep and mutton markets demonstrate similar underlying strength, though with their own weekly nuances. Makube notes that whilst Class A sheep prices edged down by 0.3% for the week, mutton prices gained ground, climbing 1.7%. The annual graph shows mutton prices sitting a robust 21.2% higher than the previous year, with import parity showing an even more impressive 28.2% increase.

Pork producers have reason for optimism this week, with both porker and baconer prices posting healthy weekly gains of 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. Year-on-year comparisons show porker prices have advanced 16%, whilst baconer prices have climbed 17.2%, suggesting strong domestic demand for pig meat.

The poultry sector presents a picture of relative stability, with fresh whole bird prices inching up just 0.2% for the week, while medium frozen whole birds gained 0.4%. “What’s particularly encouraging for poultry producers,” Makube observes, “is that fresh whole bird prices are sitting 22.6% higher than last year, indicating sustained consumer preference despite inflationary pressures.”

Grain Markets Find New Equilibrium as Input Costs Ease

The grain and oilseeds sector tells a story of recalibration, where declining prices in the short term may signal healthier market fundamentals for the months ahead. White maize futures have been trending downward across the forward curve, with March 2026 contracts down 2.3%, May contracts off 1.5%, and July showing a more pronounced 3.1% decline.

Yellow maize presents an even more marked adjustment, with Makube highlighting month-on-month decreases ranging from 1.7% for March 2026 contracts to a substantial 4.6% decline for September 2026. “These adjustments in grain prices are creating a more favourable environment for livestock producers,” he explains, noting that lower feed costs should help support margins in the animal protein sectors.

Also read: SA Grain sector celebrates a season of plenty

Wheat markets are following similar patterns, with futures contracts showing consistent monthly declines across the curve. March 2026 wheat is down 2.2%, May contracts have retreated 2.5%, and July futures are off 1.5%. The sunflower seed market has shown some resistance to broader grain weakness, though even here, slight monthly drops are evident in the futures complex.

Soybeans have bucked the trend somewhat, with Makube noting month-on-month gains ranging from 3.4% to 4% across different contract months. This divergence reflects the unique supply and demand dynamics affecting oilseed crops, where global protein meal demand continues to underpin prices.

Vegetable Markets Dance to Seasonal Rhythms

The fresh produce sector showcases the agricultural market’s inherent volatility, where seasonal patterns and weather conditions create dramatic weekly swings that can perplex even seasoned market watchers. Makube’s data reveals a vegetable market in constant motion, with some commodities experiencing dramatic adjustments.

Butternuts have faced particularly challenging conditions, with prices plummeting 26.7% in a single week, representing a substantial R2.23 decline per unit. This sharp adjustment likely reflects seasonal abundance hitting the market simultaneously. In contrast, onions have found renewed strength, climbing 6.3% or R0.09 for the week, whilst cabbage has posted an impressive 23.8% weekly gain worth R0.88 per unit.

Also read: AMT Fresh Produce Outlook | Rain, demand & supply

Potatoes, often considered a barometer for broader vegetable market sentiment, showed modest weekly weakness at 1.0% or R0.14 down. Carrots followed suit with a 1.2% decline, whilst lettuce retreated 11.8% and tomatoes fell 14.0% for the week.

“The vegetable market perfectly illustrates why agricultural planning requires such careful attention to seasonal cycles,” Makube explains. “These weekly movements often reflect harvest timing and weather patterns rather than fundamental demand changes.”

Fruit Sector Reveals Stark Seasonal Contrasts

The fruit markets present perhaps the most compelling narrative in Makube’s latest analysis, where year-on-year comparisons reveal dramatic shifts in production patterns and consumer preferences. Apples have emerged as a standout performer, with prices sitting 7.4% higher than the previous year, adding R0.94 per unit to producer returns.

However, other fruit categories have faced more challenging conditions. Avocados, despite their growing popularity, are trading 18.9% below year-ago levels, representing a substantial R6.60 per unit decline. Bananas have similarly struggled, with prices down 15.2% year-on-year or R2.11 per unit.

Also read: A promising wine grape harvest for 2025-26 in South Africa

The citrus and deciduous fruit categories present mixed fortunes. Grapes are trading 17.1% below last year’s levels, a decline worth R13.24 per unit, whilst pears have faced even steeper declines at 31.9% down or R22.85 per unit below year-ago prices.

Mangoes provide a bright spot in the fruit sector, with Makube noting prices running 25.0% ahead of the previous year, adding R3.89 per unit to producer incomes. This strength likely reflects both seasonal timing and growing consumer appreciation for tropical fruits.

Import and Export Dynamics Shape Market Opportunities

The global context remains crucial for South African agricultural markets, with Makube’s analysis highlighting how import and export parity prices continue to influence domestic opportunities. Import parity pricing for beef has remained steady week-on-week but shows impressive 21.1% year-on-year growth, suggesting strong global demand for protein.

The grain sector’s export and import parity calculations reveal how global market dynamics continue to influence local pricing. With international futures markets showing their own adjustments, South African producers must navigate between domestic supply and demand fundamentals and global price signals.

“Understanding these parity relationships is crucial for producers planning their marketing strategies,” Makube emphasises. “The interplay between local and international prices often determines whether it makes sense to target domestic or export markets.”

Also read: SA citrus exports hit record 203 million cartons – now industry eyes 100 000 new jobs