Uncertainty about South Africa’s prospects for access to the US market was back in the news this week when Senator John Kennedy’s bill, renewing AGOA for two years but explicitly excluding South Africa, was discussed in Parliament in Cape Town.
By Jasper Raats, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
Senator Kennedy introduced the bill at the end of September, on the very day that AGOA, the United States’ African Growth and Opportunity Act, expired after 25 years.
The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition told Parliament’s portfolio committee on 25 November that negotiations with the US on reinstating AGOA were under way and that there was broad support in Washington for a limited renewal. The White House had even expressed support for a one-year extension.
According to the department, a renewal was expected to retain the current benefit structure for existing members – meaning that South Africa could theoretically remain part of the programme. But this is doubtful. The AGOA Extension and Bilateral Engagement Act would extend the programme for two years – but only for African countries that “support US interests”.
Kennedy argues that the programme is essential to counter China’s growing influence in Africa, and he accuses South Africa of “siding with China and Russia”.
If the bill were passed, it would end South Africa’s AGOA benefits and require the US president to formally declare that South Africa is undermining the United States’ national security interests. It also includes a classified list of senior South African officials who may qualify for Magnitsky sanctions, such as asset freezes and travel bans.
Also read: Last of AGOA benefits soon to be gone
What Is at Stake for Agriculture?
According to Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo, the proposed exclusion could have serious consequences for certain agricultural industries that rely heavily on the US market, even though it accounts for only 3–4% of South Africa’s total agricultural exports.
In 2024, South Africa exported agricultural products worth $13,7 billion, of which the US took 4%. This mainly included citrus, wine, fruit juice and nuts. Exports were strong in the first half of 2025 despite the so-called Freedom Day tariffs.
During the 90-day grace period, export volumes to the US even rose by 26% in the second quarter. Exports began to cool in the third quarter, however, falling by 11% to $144 million compared with the same period a year earlier, although the product mix remained largely unchanged.
Sihlobo warns that higher tariffs are the biggest risk if South Africa is excluded from AGOA. At present, the US already applies a 30% import tariff to most South African agricultural products. Without AGOA, these tariff levels could rise to about 33% or more, once the most-favoured-nation tariffs are added.
These higher tariff levels would make access to the US market more challenging for various agricultural products. It would undermine South Africa’s competitiveness compared with countries like Chile and Peru, which face lower tariff rates of about 10%.
The US has, however, exempted certain food products from the new tariffs, including coffee, tea, fruit juices, spices, avocados, mangoes, bananas and beef. For South Africa, this is favourable for products like oranges, macadamias and fruit juices, but most agricultural products remain under pressure.
Also read: ‘AGOA is dead, now look ahead and make other plans’
A Critical Trade Partnership
Sihlobo says South Africa has maintained a stable share of the US agricultural market over the past two decades, and that the sector relies heavily on favourable trade terms to support growth.
Political tensions between South Africa and the US – especially after the US boycott of the G20 summit and its failed attempt to block South Africa from issuing a leaders’ declaration – increase the risk that the proposed bill by Senator Kennedy may gain political momentum.
“These are still early days,” Sihlobo says, “and we are all watching developments in the US… At the time of writing, there was no final view of this issue. Suffice it to say that from an agricultural perspective, the US remains a valuable market.”
Also read: The agricultural sector can weather the impact of a potential AGOA exit
