Uncertainty around access to water for irrigation is expected to affect agricultural investment, land values and commodity production. This is the opinion of Annelize Crosby, Agbiz’s new head of legal intelligence.

By Charl van Rooyen, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad

Crosby referred to the Draft National Water Amendment Bill that was approved by cabinet on 6 August and will be tabled at the Agbiz Annual Media Day in Pretoria.

One of the proposed changes in the latest version of the National Water Act is a ban on the trading or transfer of water rights from one person to another.

Crosby noted that irrigation underpins up to 90% of high-value crops – such as potatoes, vegetables and fruit. Irrigated wine grapes and fruit orchards also rely on irrigation for around 90% of production, while 25% to 40% of industrial crops such as sugarcane and cotton are irrigated.

Misperceptions about chemicals

Crosby said several misconceptions persist – such as the belief that South Africa lacks adequate regulation of agrochemicals, that food production would not be affected if these products were banned, and that local conditions mirror those in Europe.

Recommendations on the registration and use of such drugs are contained in a final report to be submitted to John Steenhuisen, Minister of Agriculture. Crosby said a new legislative framework is possible. “It is important to come up with a realistic framework, based on science, taking into account Southern African climate conditions.

Positive things carried over to 2026

Many of the positive things that happened to the agricultural sector during 2025 will be carried over to 2026, said Theo Boshoff, CEO of Agbiz.

The key aspects that will dominate and that should be watched include the announced vaccination of all cattle against foot-and-mouth disease, test cases on land expropriation, efforts to diversify trade, the National Water Act that proposes new controls on water, communal land rights, reform and the regulation of crop protection products.

There were at least “more green shoots than challenges” in the agricultural sector this year and this brought new hope. However, he added that misinformation also increased during the year, including statements by US President Donald Trump regarding land expropriation and the treatment of certain groups.

His tariffs on imported goods have disrupted trade. Highly confidential negotiations are currently being held between South Africa and the US to obtain greater clarity on the tariffs for, among other things, red meat, oranges, orange juice, macadamia nuts and subtropical fruits.

Fruit exports more valuable than iron ore

“South Africa has a good export profile. Excessive dependence on one country is not healthy. So it is very beneficial to have such a wide trade exposure. That is why we are committed to trade agreements with other countries and regions,” said Wolfe Braude, Agbiz’s fruit manager.

South Africa’s agricultural exports performed strongly in 2024 – almost twice the value of iron ore exports and nearly three times that of chrome ore. Total agricultural exports reached R13.7 billion, slightly above the value of vehicle and component exports.

Fruit exports increased compared to last year. About 1% more grapes were exported, 18% more nectarines, 3% more plums, 3% more peaches and 22% more citrus. Strong growth was predicted for avocados and blueberries.

Braude outlined the diversified exports to the different parts of the world: Africa 44%, the Middle East and Asia 21%, the European Union (EU) 19%, the United Kingdom (UK) 9%, the Americas 6% and the rest of the world 1%.

Of that, fruit exports were as follows: the EU 36%, Asia 17%, the Middle East 15%, the UK 13%, North America 7%, Africa 5% and the rest of the world 6%.

Also read: Vision 260 Strategy: Citrus exports deliver on growth promise

New technology important for grain

Conservation agriculture and precision-farming technologies will be essential for grain producers in 2026, said Dr Charl van der Merwe, Chief Grain Manager at Agbiz.

South Africa is fortunate to have good structures, consisting of commodity trusts,

value chain associations, industry organisations and forums, the Department of Agriculture structures and the Master Plan for Agriculture and Agro-Processing.

Important aspects for 2026 include price and production risks, infrastructure and legal aspects.

In terms of price and risks, it is necessary, among other things, to look at production systems and apply conservation farming; conduct continued research; use new technology, such as precision farming; access timely market information and implement a fair marketing system.

Infrastructure such as roads and rail transport are extremely important for the agricultural industry.

Legal aspects affecting the agricultural sector include efforts to ban chemicals, grain grading regulations, food hygiene and safety standards, and the tariff system for wheat.