By Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz)
It is increasingly clear that we went into this festive season with food prices in South Africa rising at a slightly faster pace than in October.
For example, after slowing for three consecutive months, South Africa’s consumer food price inflation ticked up to 4.4% in November 2025, from 3.9% in the previous month.
This uptick was mainly underpinned by meat, fish and other seafood, as well as oils and fats. These are all the products whose demand typically increases during the festive season, as South Africans enjoy the holidays and spend more.
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Other product prices in the food basket moderated from the previous month’s levels.
The increase in meat prices is unsurprising, as we continue to face the challenge of foot-and-mouth disease, which has caused panic in the market.
Still, I must highlight that during foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, the country is typically temporarily closed to some export markets, leading to lower consumer prices.
But this year we saw the opposite. Initially, panic buying driven by retailers’ announcements, rather than a product shortage, was the main driver of meat prices, combined with buoyant consumer demand.
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We then saw some moderation in price inflation in the past few months. But now the uptick again, as panic buying continues alongside festive demand.
South Africa has started vaccinating cattle against foot-and-mouth disease, which should help ease supply concerns in the coming months and lead to some moderation in meat price inflation.
The uptick in oil and fat price inflation was mainly due to base effects. The world market generally has ample vegetable oils, and the domestic supplies are also plentiful. Thus, I think this will be a temporary blip.
On the positive, South Africa has an abundant harvest, with the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest estimated at 20.08 million tonnes (up 30% y/y). The various fruits and vegetables also saw ample harvests. Thus, the price inflation of these products has generally decelerated, and some are in deflation, mainly vegetables and fruits.
From now on, we remain optimistic that South Africa’s consumer food price inflation will remain at reasonably lower levels.
Also read: Food inflation outlook remains promising despite recent rise
The benefits of lower grain prices, ample fruit and vegetable supplies, and potentially easing meat prices in the coming months could be the major drivers of the deceleration.
Still, there is some uncertainty around meat, as foot-and-mouth disease remains a challenge, and the vaccination is unfolding.
