Well-established high-pressure systems are currently putting a damper on rainfall conditions across South Africa, but there is a chance of improvement.

By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad

So far, January 2026 can be described as a month of extremes in terms of rainfall across the summer rainfall region.

In the north-eastern parts of the country, such as the Kruger National Park, 600mm or more fell over a period of about ten days, while other parts of the region recorded below-average rainfall.

In the western parts of Mpumalanga, which include Delmas, Balfour and Standerton, rainfall amounted to 50mm or less by 26 January, with some areas recording less than 30mm. The long-term average rainfall for January in this area is around 120mm or more, which means rainfall this month is between 25% and 40% below average.

“Very wet conditions in November in particular, as well as rain that fell in patches during December, have replenished groundwater levels, and plants are therefore currently mainly using stored water,” explains Johan van den Berg, an independent agricultural meteorologist.

He says the rain that did fall over these areas was generally light and only occasionally supplemented the daily water consumption of plants. “However, there was no replenishment of deeper soil layers.”

Also read: Summer grain conditions: Some farmers pray for sunshine; others for rain

What is the chance of drought damage?

According to Van den Berg, this type of rainfall pattern has occurred across most of the rest of the summer rainfall area, although soil moisture in the western parts can still sustain plants because these soils retain moisture better.

“Drought damage is currently developing across large parts of the summer grain areas. Usually the saying goes that if January is wet, the summer grain harvest will be quite good. This is not currently the case, and there is a fairly high risk that the summer grain harvest could suffer drought damage. If rain does occur in the next two weeks, it could still limit large-scale damage,” says Van den Berg.

The very high maximum temperatures currently occurring across the country are exacerbating the situation. Daytime temperatures of up to 35°C or higher, occurring for extended periods particularly over the central to western summer grain areas, can cause damage, especially during pollination. Van den Berg notes that even in the normally cooler Eastern Free State, where temperatures rarely exceed 30°C, daytime temperatures of between 33°C and 36°C are being recorded.

Short-term forecasts

According to short-term forecasts, the chances of rainfall in February are improving, although rain may occur in streaks and will generally be lighter.

“There are well-established high-pressure systems over both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans that are suppressing low-pressure systems and, as a result, rainfall activity over most of Namibia and South Africa in the coming weeks.”

Across most of the Eastern and Western Cape, rainfall remains unfavourable in the weeks ahead, with the exception of the Garden Route, where rainfall chances improve between 2 and 8 February. Van den Berg says forecasts indicate the possibility of between 10mm and 15mm in the Mossel Bay, George and Sedgefield areas during this period.