Specialist agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg brought a crucial scientific perspective to the Nedbank Agriculture Webinar held on 28 January, bridging the gap between global climate science and practical farming decisions.
By Maile Matsimela, Digital Editor at African Farming
His analysis provided essential context for understanding how broader environmental changes influence day-to-day agricultural planning and long-term sector sustainability.
Van den Berg began his presentation by outlining a fundamental principle that would guide his entire analysis. “Although I’m going to focus on the 2026 weather outlook, you can’t do only that,” he explained. “We must take into account the effect of climate change and also the longer-term trends.”
The Undeniable Reality of Global Warming
Van den Berg presented compelling evidence of global temperature changes that form the backdrop for all agricultural planning. Using data spanning from 1860 to 2022, he illustrated how the Earth is warming up, with particular acceleration evident from about 1980. The current situation shows temperatures that are about 0.8 to 1.2°C warmer than normal, he said.
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Van den Berg emphasised the significance of understanding regional impacts, noting that “the northern hemisphere is warming up about twice the rate of the southern hemisphere, probably due to more activity that is releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere”.
The recent temperature records underscore the urgency of these trends. “The warmest year was 2024, and that was still part of the El Niño of 2023, 2024,” Van den Berg observed, while noting that “if we are heading for an El Niño for 2026, 2027, there’s quite a high likelihood that it will be very, very hot, and this is globally, it’s not only in South Africa, but we are following the trend”.
Rainfall Intensity: The Complex Mathematics of Climate Change
Van den Berg provided crucial insights into how global warming affects precipitation patterns. “How does climate change affect rainfall intensity and totals on Earth?” he asked, before providing the fundamental relationship: “For every 1°C more that the air warms, it can hold about 7% more water.”
“Heavier rainfall … we see that the intensity is increasing,” Van den Berg explained, describing how climate change creates fundamentally different precipitation patterns. However, the relationship is paradoxical: “So it’s not only more rain, but it increases the likelihood of severe droughts and severe heat conditions as well.”
Using local data, Van den Berg showed that rainfall totals are on the increase in many parts of South Africa, but not all areas. Beyond quantity changes, he identified that there’s also a shift in the rainfall pattern, which is affecting agricultural production and agricultural practices.
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