According to analysis released by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), the scale of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) infections recorded during 2025 has significantly altered earlier projections, shifting the livestock industry into what economists now describe as a high-disease-burden environment.
By Talitha Janse van Vuuren, multimedia editor at African Farming
South Africa’s FMD outbreaks are beginning to show their full economic weight, with new data indicating mounting losses in both the dairy and beef sectors as the disease spreads more widely and persists for longer than initially expected. Industry organisations warn that the consequences now extend well beyond animal health, with serious implications for agricultural trade, rural employment and long-term food security.
FMD cases increased sharply during the second half of 2025, taking the total number of reported cases for the year to 24 406 – the highest annual total recorded in South Africa. This far exceeds the previous peak of about 7 770 cases reported during the 2022 outbreak.
The virus spread to eight of South Africa’s nine provinces, leaving only the Northern Cape unaffected. Earlier economic modelling conducted in mid-2025 had been based on fewer than 3 000 cases, highlighting how quickly conditions on the ground overtook initial assumptions.
Referring to the BFAP findings, Free State Agriculture (FSA) vice president Friedl von Maltitz noted that South Africa lost its FMD-free status in 2019 and that disease pressures have since intensified, culminating in what he described as a “high-burden disease scenario” for the livestock sector.
BFAP notes that this escalation has direct implications for production forecasts, trade flows and recovery timelines across the livestock sector.
Dairy Sector Sees Immediate Financial Strain
The dairy industry has experienced some of the most immediate economic impacts. Information compiled by BFAP, drawing on data from the Milk Producers’ Organisation (MPO), shows that more than 90 dairy farms reported FMD outbreaks between January 2024 and January 2026, with infections accelerating from late 2025.
More than 210 000 dairy cattle have been affected, with cumulative losses to date estimated at approximately R1 billion. Case studies from affected regions indicate that losses per cow average about R5 000, driven by reduced milk production, increased veterinary intervention and higher management and labour costs.
Von Maltitz warned that prolonged disease pressure could push some family-owned dairy operations beyond financial recovery, with knock-on effects for rural employment and milk supply.
BFAP cautions that continued disease pressure could push some dairy operations beyond financial recovery, with potential implications for milk supply and employment in affected rural areas.
Beef Industry Faces Larger, Longer-term Exposure
In contrast to dairy, the economic effects in the beef sector are expected to unfold over a longer period but at a much larger scale. Beef and dairy together contribute an estimated R68 billion in annual gross production value, making them central to South Africa’s agricultural economy.
BFAP estimates that under a medium-disease-burden scenario, losses in beef gross production value (GPV) could reach R3.2 billion between 2025 and 2030. Under a high-burden scenario, where outbreaks continue to disrupt breeding cycles, calving rates and animal movement, GPV losses could rise to R11.3 billion over the same period.
“The economic implications are profound,” said von Maltitz. “Under a sustained high-burden scenario, the sector faces losses that extend well beyond farm gates and into value chains, employment and rural economies.”
Looking further ahead, BFAP warns that without major intervention, lost GPV in the beef and dairy industries could accumulate to R25.6 billion over the next decade.
When projected export losses are included, BFAP estimates that combined losses could amount to R13.1 billion over the next five years, comprising R11.3 billion in production losses and an estimated R1.8 billion decline in beef export earnings.
Export Performance Under Pressure
South Africa’s beef export sector has been a key growth area in recent years, but remains highly sensitive to disease outbreaks. Beef exports reached a record 39 700 tonnes in 2024, supported by trade protocols with several Middle Eastern markets.
As FMD outbreaks intensified, export volumes declined to 29 500 tonnes in 2025, and BFAP projects that exports could fall further to about 13 400 tonnes in 2026 if current conditions persist.
Across three major FMD waves between 2019 and 2025, beef export revenue losses are estimated at more than R821 million. At the current trajectory, cumulative losses could rise to R2.6 billion by the end of 2026.
FSA has warned that repeated export disruptions are eroding South Africa’s credibility as a livestock trading partner and reversing years of progress made in rebuilding market access.
Despite ongoing outbreaks, BFAP notes that existing trade protocols have helped preserve access to certain markets, limiting the extent of export disruption compared with previous disease episodes.
Market Signals Reflect Adjustment
Despite the scale of the outbreak, slaughter numbers have declined more moderately than anticipated. Data from Red Meat Industry Services (RMIS) indicates that an average of 218 000 cattle were slaughtered per month between January and November 2025, compared with 235 000 per month during the same period in 2024.
Producer prices have adjusted accordingly, with average Class A beef prices declining to about R65/kg, down from highs of approximately R83/kg recorded in mid-2025.
Supply dynamics may shift further in 2026 following a sharp reduction in weaner calf imports from Namibia, which fell from about 259 000 animals in 2024 to roughly 52 000 in 2025.
A Sustained Economic Challenge
BFAP’s analysis shows that South Africa has now moved into a sustained high-burden FMD scenario. Although the full economic impact will continue to unfold over time, the data indicates that the disease is reshaping production decisions, trade performance and risk exposure across the livestock value chain.
Against this backdrop, Free State Agriculture has confirmed that it is pursuing legal action, together with other agricultural role players, to compel urgent intervention.“This decision was not taken lightly,” said FSA president Francois Wilken. “It follows years of engagement, formal warnings and repeated calls for decisive action to protect farmers and the national economy.”
FSA stressed that the FMD crisis should be recognised as a national economic and trade emergency, rather than a sector-specific animal health issue.
Also read:
Steenhuisen hits back at industry groups over threatened FMD vaccine court action
FMD | SA’s Ayrshire dairy farmers’ desperate fight to save their herds
FMD: What can you do? – Dr Sipokazi Nyeleka
