The recent Nedbank Agriculture Webinar focused on South Africa’s agricultural outlook for 2026, informed by a review of the sector’s performance in 2025. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz), provided a macroeconomic perspective on the agricultural outlook. He highlighted how global economic trends and trade dynamics continue to shape the sector’s performance and future prospects, offering important context for understanding the opportunities and challenges facing agriculture.

By Maile Matsimela, digital editor at African Farming

The Export-Orientated Reality of South African Agriculture

Sihlobo anchored his analysis in a core reality: “The South African agricultural sector is export-orientated.” He noted that roughly half of all agricultural production is destined for export markets.

This reliance on exports places a strong emphasis on value creation. “What becomes important is that we are exporting a lot of high-value products – fruit at the top of our export basket, as well as meat – before, of course, the foot-and-mouth disease challenges we are currently facing – and grains.”

Also read: Effective logistics are the heart of an effective agricultural export strategy

Macroeconomic Performance Better Than Expected

Sihlobo offered a measured assessment of recent macroeconomic performance. “I think it would be fair to say – and I’m sure the Nedbank economics team would agree – that, macroeconomically, things did not turn out as badly as some people anticipated at the beginning of last year.”

He cautioned, however, that sluggish global growth continues to weigh on export demand. “The world [economy] is growing far below the long-term averages we have seen in many of the regions to which we export.”

Looking ahead, Sihlobo said expectations for GDP growth remain muted. “Everyone is thinking that the South African economy will remain below 2%, at around 1,5% or so.”