Forecasts indicate that the summer rainfall pattern is beginning to shift further west, but a weather system from the second week of February could still bring widespread rain.

By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad 

Despite the westward shift of the summer rainfall pattern, fairly heavy rainfall remains possible over the next two weeks in Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal, among other places.

“Current forecasts suggest that most of South Africa – including the very dry Eastern Cape and the interior of the Northern Cape – can expect rain between about 8 and 15 February,” says Johan van den Berg, an independent agricultural meteorologist. These rainfall conditions could also lead to lower daytime temperatures during this period.

Conditions over the western parts of the country are, however, expected to remain hot during the second half of February, which could reduce the impact of rain in those areas.

Tropical Storm and Rain Over Southern Africa

A tropical storm that affected Madagascar, causing wind speeds of up to 80km/h, has started moving south-eastwards over the Indian Ocean. The storm is not expected to have a negative impact on Southern African rainfall systems.

Van den Berg says a band of rain and low-pressure systems is still present, stretching from Angola, Zambia, northern Mozambique and northern Madagascar far eastwards over the Indian Ocean.

“Forecasts show that a strong tropical system could begin developing north-east of Madagascar from around 5 February, but it is expected to turn just east of Madagascar and move south-eastwards between 7 and 11 February.”

Also read: Streaky rains could lead to drought damage to crops

Poor Agricultural Conditions

Overall, agricultural conditions remain poor across the western and southern parts of the summer rainfall region, but the expected February rainfall could improve conditions.

Grazing conditions in the southern parts of the Northern Cape, as well as the western half of the Eastern Cape, are very poor and will only improve if follow-up rains occur. The period from February to April is the most important time for veld production.

Based on current conditions, rain is possible in the coming weeks, but the chances of follow-up rain do not look favourable. Grazing conditions were already poor after winter, meaning the veld will take longer than usual to recover.

“There is therefore still a high risk that poor grazing conditions could continue into winter,” Van den Berg says.

The possible development of El Niño from winter onwards could increase the chances of rain in late winter, spring and early summer over the southern parts of the Northern Cape, as well as the Eastern and Western Cape.

Also read: Summer grain conditions: Some farmers pray for sunshine; others for rain

Winter rainfall region

A summer rainfall system that could occur over Namibia this week and move southwards over the western parts of the Northern Cape, together with a weak cold front, is creating favourable conditions for rain over parts of the winter rainfall region.

This could bring fairly good rainfall from 4 February over the central to eastern parts of the Western Cape. Little rain is expected closer to the West Coast.

Rainfall of 10mm or more could occur between 4 and 9 February in areas such as Beaufort West, Laingsburg, Montagu, Oudtshoorn, Riversdale, Mossel Bay, George and Uniondale.

“In the longer term, conditions for rain remain unfavourable from the rest of February through to at least June across most of the winter rainfall region,” Van den Berg says. “But the expected El Niño development could lead to better rainfall conditions, especially from July to September.”