The latest agrimetrics compiled by The South African agricultural landscape continues to display mixed signals across various commodity sectors, with grain and oilseed futures showing softening trends while livestock markets maintain relative firmness and fresh produce experiences notable volatility.paint a picture of a South African agricultural sector experiencing both challenges and opportunities as we head into the final stretch of 2025.

By Maile Matsimela, Digital Editor at African Farming

Grain and Oilseed Markets

According to the agrimetrics compiled by Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Commercial, for the week ending 23 January, the grain sector presents a cautiously optimistic picture, with white maize March contracts gaining 0.6% month-on-month to reach R3 590, while yellow maize futures declined slightly by 0.9% to R3 468. The broader outlook for maize remains subdued, with later-month futures generally declining between 1% and 2.7% month-on-month. This softening aligns with international trends, as US yellow maize futures on the CME hover around US$169-179 per tonne across various contracts.

Wheat markets tell a more divergent story between local and international trends. SAFEX wheat March contracts have declined 4.3% month-on-month to R5 727, reflecting domestic market pressures. Conversely, US Kansas City futures are rising across later contracts, trading at approximately US$195-217 per tonne, suggesting different fundamental drivers between markets.

The oilseed complex has faced headwinds, with sunflower seed March contracts dropping 4.8% month-on-month to R9 208, while soybeans declined 3.7% to R6 536. However, processed oilseed products show resilience, with soymeal and soy oil futures posting modest gains across CBOT contracts, indicating strong processing margins and demand for protein meals and vegetable oils.

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Livestock and Meat Sector

The livestock sector continues to demonstrate robust year-on-year performance, though weekly movements remain mixed. Beef markets show particular strength, with Class A beef advancing 1.7% week-on-week and posting impressive 13.5% year-on-year gains. Class C beef, while declining 0.6% weekly, maintains substantial 19.3% annual growth. Contract A beef futures gained 2.0% week-on-week, suggesting sustained demand.

Sheep markets experienced weekly pressure, with Class A lamb declining 2.6% week-on-week despite maintaining 7.0% year-on-year growth. Mutton followed a similar pattern, dropping 1.9% weekly while posting strong 19.3% annual gains.

Pork markets demonstrated resilience with porker prices advancing 0.7% week-on-week, building on exceptional 25.8% year-on-year growth. Baconer prices remained relatively stable with a minor 0.4% weekly decline but impressive 25.3% annual appreciation.

Poultry markets showed mixed performance, with fresh whole birds declining 0.8% week-on-week but maintaining 11.3% year-on-year growth. IQF products remained unchanged weekly while posting 7.1% annual gains.

Soft Commodities

Sugar markets displayed modest weekly strength, with ICE No.11 March contracts advancing approximately 0.7% to around 14.83 US cents per pound, reflecting global supply-demand dynamics and currency movements.

Cotton futures faced pressure with ICE No.2 contracts declining between 0.6% and 0.8% across near-term contracts, suggesting continued challenges in the global cotton trade environment.

The wool market provided a bright spot with the wool market indicator advancing modestly week-on-week to approximately R229 per kilogram from R224, indicating stable demand for quality South African wool.

Fresh Produce Volatility

Fresh produce markets exhibited extreme volatility, characteristic of seasonal supply variations and demand fluctuations. Vegetables showed particularly dramatic movements, with cabbage surging 23.28% week-on-week and lettuce advancing 22.86%. Tomatoes posted strong 21.87% gains, while butternuts rose 4.59%. However, several vegetables declined, including carrots (-8.09%), onions (-5.56%), and potatoes (-4.98%).

Fruit markets similarly displayed mixed performance with notable extremes. Naartjies experienced extraordinary growth of 140.2% week-on-week, while lemons advanced 36.2% and grapefruit gained 23.3%. Limes posted solid 21.7% gains, and mangoes rose 5.37%. Conversely, oranges declined 13.2%, bananas dropped 6.70%, and grapes fell 5.71%, reflecting seasonal availability and quality variations.

Market Drivers and Outlook

The current market environment reflects multiple interconnected factors. International futures and global commodity prices continue to influence local markets through import and export parity mechanisms. Exchange rate movements between the rand and US dollar remain crucial in converting global prices to local equivalents.

Local supply dynamics, particularly seasonal harvest patterns and weekly volumes in fresh produce markets, drive significant price volatility. Domestic demand patterns, including consumer preferences and food processing requirements, interact with these supply factors to determine final pricing.

Feed and input costs, particularly grain and oilseed prices, significantly influence livestock and poultry production margins, creating important linkages between crop and livestock sectors.