South Africa’s formal pork value chain is beset by a range of major challenges that are anticipated to impact supply for at least the next 15 to 17 weeks. This in turn is expected to result in the bittersweet impacts of firm and possibly even stronger carcass prices for those pork producers still able to supply the market, but pressure on already cash-strapped pork consumers’ wallets.
By Lloyd Phillips, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
The South African Pork Producers’ Organisation (SAPPO) reports that some of the seven commercial piggeries where foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is confirmed or suspected have reported mortalities of up to 20% of their infected herds. These mortalities have mostly been concentrated in the suckling piglets and young weaners that would otherwise have been grown out for slaughter.
The supply impacts are exacerbated by the fact that only one abattoir in South Africa has received provisional approval from the state to slaughter clinically healthy pigs from piggeries where FMD has been confirmed or is suspected. This abattoir is on the same premises as the commercial piggery infected with FMD and may only slaughter pigs from this self-same piggery.
Then there are the outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) at four commercial piggeries in Gauteng. SAPPO reports that this has, to date, resulted in almost 30 000 pigs having to be culled. The latter include breeding sows that are fundamental to a piggery’s sustainable productivity and income, and to the supply of slaughter pigs for the pork value chain, both immediately and over the longer term.
Dr Marlene Louw is the chief executive officer of SAPPO and Dr Thandi Chiappero is the head of consumer assurance at the organisation.
They say: “Given the loss [of production and] in productive capacity [because of FMD and ASF], we deem that supply will remain tighter throughout 2026. Given this, prices will likely remain firm, with some additional upside scope.”
Also read: Lack of FMD-designated abattoirs for pigs ‘most important factor’
Carcass Prices Already up 25.86%
AMT, the agricultural market analysis firm, reports significant increases already for the average prices of South Africa’s pork carcasses over the period 30 May 2025 to 30 January 2026. Baconer prices increased 25.79% from R32.10 per kilogram to R40.38/kg, porker prices increased 26.24% from R32.47/kg to R40.99/kg, and sausage pig prices increased 25.55% from R24.93/kg to R31.30/kg.
Louw and Chiappero point out that despite ongoing efforts to bring them under control, both FMD and ASF remain active threats to some, and potentially all, of the country’s commercial piggeries. Outbreaks of these diseases in informal or emerging piggeries are often not reported to SAPPO, so the organisation does not know the true extent of either FMD and/or ASF in the national pig herd.
“These informal piggeries, especially those with free-roaming pigs, make it difficult to control the spread of disease among pigs.
“However, we do not believe free-roaming pigs are the main source of infection with FMD in our commercial piggeries. It is more likely due to high viral loads in cattle populations surrounding these piggeries.”
SAPPO reports that whereas the national directorate of animal health is working on an update to its 2024 FMD contingency plan to include management protocols for this disease in commercial piggeries, SAPPO is simultaneously working on a “more detailed version for internal SAPPO use alongside producers and private vets”.
Louw and Chiappero explain that both the Dollvet FMD vaccine from Turkey and the Biogénesis Bagó FMD vaccine from Argentina, which will reportedly soon be imported by South Africa, are registered for use in pigs elsewhere in the world and are therefore likely to be approved for use in pigs here.
Also read: FMD | Pig industry seeks answers following confirmed and suspected outbreaks
Strategic Vaccination Proposed for Pigs
“We propose using [FMD] vaccine only on affected pig farms and on the cattle surrounding them. It is important to keep in mind that a pig farm can house up to 55 000 animals, and the value of a pig carcass is not the same as that of beef. So, we need to consider the profit margin on any individual pig.
“We need to be strategic about the use of vaccines in pigs. Pigs do shed a lot of [FMD] virus, but they are also far more contained in commercial piggeries. It would be up to provincial veterinary services whether to vaccinate free-roaming pigs to manage risk.”
SAPPO reports that culling animals infected with ASF and others that are part of these infected animals’ epidemiological unit remains the primary measure for managing outbreaks of this disease. Where biosecurity strategies permit, a commercial piggery with cases of ASF can be split into infected versus non-infected units.
Clinically healthy pigs from piggeries infected with FMD or ASF can only be slaughtered at abattoirs that have been approved by the state to do so. SAPPO has referred African Farming to the state and to the Red Meat Abattoir Association (RMAA) for clarification on if or when and where such abattoirs might achieve such authorised designation.
African Farming will report the state’s and the RMAA’s responses when these become available.
Also read: African swine fever (ASF) is tough to control, researchers say
