As the western parts of the country experienced extremely hot conditions over the past few days, weak cold fronts elsewhere caused minimum temperatures to drop to about 10°C. Farmers wondered whether the first frost of the year may be on its way.
By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
Rainfall over the central, eastern and south-eastern parts of the country during the past week was generally light over North West, the Free State, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Parts of the Garden Route and the Eastern Cape got up to 100mm of rain in places, and flood damage occurred in Graaff-Reinet and Jansenville, among other places.
At Koppies in the Free State and Amersfoort in Mpumalanga, rainfall of up to 60mm and 70mm, respectively, was recorded. But in the north-eastern Free State and the adjoining western parts of Mpumalanga it remains very dry, says independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg.
Although the rain has brought temporary relief, much more rain is urgently needed. “If short-term forecasts are taken into account, conditions for further rainfall should improve again from around 21 February,” he says. “Between 20mm and 30mm is possible over most of the summer grain-producing area. Forecasts also indicate a possibility of rain around 5 March.”
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Rain in the Next Two Weeks
From around 20 February, tropical moisture will move southwards and south-eastwards over Namibia and Botswana. “This could once again bring fairly good to heavy rainfall over most of the Northern Cape, except the West Coast, as well as over the Eastern and Southern Cape from 21 to 24 February.”
This system may move eastwards from 22 February, causing rain over the rest of the summer rainfall region. A weak cold front may also pass over parts of the country during this period, causing stormy conditions with hail in places. The chances of hail are particularly high in the Southern Cape and the Eastern Cape interior where the topography features high mountain ranges.
Van den Berg says Cyclone Gezani, which moved into the Mozambique Channel last week, has already shifted eastwards to just south of Madagascar, from where it will continue moving south-eastwards into the Indian Ocean.
Also read: Severe storms and tornadoes: How farmers can stay prepared
No Need to Fear Early Frost
Over the past few days, weak cold fronts have moved into the country from the south-west, causing minimum temperatures to drop to around 10°C. Further frontal systems in the coming weeks may cause temporary drops in temperature, but they should not fall low enough for frost to occur, Van den Berg says.
Further rainfall expected in the coming weeks and months will contribute to good humidity levels, which will help reduce the risk of frost.
“The first frost is expected to occur at the usual time, or even slightly later than normal. Severe frost is therefore not expected before at least the end of April in the summer grain-producing areas. Frost may begin to occur from the end of March in the colder southern parts of the country, such as the higher-lying inland areas of the Eastern Cape.”
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