Relatively heavy rainfall may occur over parts of the country this week, while isolated to scattered showers are forecast across most of the summer rainfall region almost daily at the beginning of March.
By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
Across much of the summer grain-production area, more than 20mm of rain is again possible between 25 February and 1 March, says independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg. Isolated to scattered showers are likely to continue across most of the summer rainfall region until about 10 March, with rain possible almost daily.
This rainfall could result in very wet conditions. Producers involved in haymaking, in particular, are likely to face poor drying prospects. Van den Berg says it is not recommended to cut lucerne or make any other hay until at least the second week of March. Rain may extend far enough west to create very unfavourable conditions for raisin drying in the Northern Cape.
Also read: Temperatures drop, but early frost unlikely
What Is the Likelihood of Early Frost?
Over the past two decades, there has been a trend towards the first frost occurring later, and the last frost date has also been shifting later. During strong El Niño seasons, or when an El Niño event remains active in February and March, causing very dry conditions, weather patterns are more likely to favour early frost, as cold fronts tend to arrive earlier. Dry atmospheric conditions also allow stronger heat radiation from the earth’s surface, increasing frost risk.
With further rainfall expected, however, the chances of early frost before at least the end of April this year are very low, Van den Berg says.
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