After below-average rainfall in January and February across large parts of the summer grain-production region, widespread rain is now needed to achieve good grain harvests, according to a report by Grain SA.
By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
Rain fell in places over parts of the summer rainfall region around the third week of February. Several production areas that received follow-up rain have stabilised for now, says Grain SA, based on a survey conducted among producers.
Without meaningful rain within the next week, national yield potential could decline, particularly for soya beans and dryland maize, according to the Production Condition Report issued by Grain SA on 24 February. Conditions differ by region, but many areas are trending towards average yields. Sufficient rainfall in the coming week will play a decisive role.
Corné Louw, applied economics and member services lead at Grain SA, says that if widespread rainfall does not occur in the coming weeks, below-average production conditions could persist in some regions.
Farmers from Mpumalanga and the Eastern Free State who spoke to African Farming also reported mixed conditions. Some fields are expected to deliver good yields, whereas others could be well below average.
Also read: Wet start to March expected for summer rainfall region
Crop Failures in Some Areas?
Dry conditions in summer grain areas that have received very little rain since early January remain a concern. In particular, the area around Frankfort and Vrede in the Free State, extending northwards through Greylingstad, Delmas and Balfour, as well as parts of Bethal, is very dry, with little rain having fallen along this narrow band.
Overall, summer grain conditions range from near-total crop failure in places on the Mpumalanga Highveld to near-record harvests in the central to northern parts of the Free State, such as Koppies, the eastern parts of North West, and the south-eastern parts of Mpumalanga, including Amersfoort, says independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg.
In the western regions, land with a high water table and substantial stored soil moisture – thanks to good rainfall in 2025 – is performing well and is expected to deliver strong yields, he says.
Several factors could still influence final yields, Van den Berg adds, including the very hot conditions in late January and early February, which may have caused pollination problems in some areas. Diseases could also develop following a dry spell succeeded by good rainfall.
Also read: Market Pulse | Grains soften while livestock stays firm
Crop Condition Survey
Grain SA’s Green Leaf Index tracks crop growth and development throughout the season. According to the index, crop conditions across most summer rainfall areas are significantly better than the five-year average.
The data covers the period from 1 July 2025 to 24 February 2026.
North-Western Free State: Across most of the region, crop conditions range from normal to above-normal. Earlier stress symptoms have largely stabilised, and yield expectations have improved from below average to average or slightly above average in isolated areas. Some minimal damage from the early dry spell remains, but the overall outlook shows recovery.
Eastern Free State: Recent rainfall has reduced soil moisture stress and stabilised late-planted crops. In areas such as Warden and Harrismith, however, pollination damage cannot be reversed, and some maize fields will reflect poor kernel set. Soya beans remain vulnerable in lighter soils, but the risk of widespread crop failure has declined. Consistent rainfall is still needed in this region.
Limpopo: Crop conditions remain uneven. While parts of the province show normal crop growth, several pockets display below-normal performance. Early plantings affected by heat and soil moisture stress will not recover fully, and yield potential remains constrained. Later plantings have benefited from recent rainfall in some areas, but sustained follow-up rain is still needed to improve production prospects.
Eastern Highveld: The region now shows predominantly normal to above-normal crop conditions. Heavy rainfall has strengthened crop development and improved grain-fill prospects. Earlier waterlogging damage may still limit performance in isolated fields, but overall crop conditions are better than two weeks ago. Yield expectations have stabilised and, in some areas, improved.
North West: Crop development has improved. Maize in the grain-fill stage is benefiting from replenished soil moisture. While isolated western pockets remain weaker, the overall outlook has shifted from predominantly negative to moderately positive. Yield potential has stabilised in most central and eastern production areas, with variability persisting in drier western zones.
Click here for Grain SA’s full Production Condition Report of 24 February 2026.
Also read: Summer grain conditions: Some farmers pray for sunshine; others for rain
