Current meteorological models indicate a high probability of below-normal precipitation during the anticipated El Niño event, spanning November 2026 through April 2027, with peak impacts expected during the December-March period.

By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains La Niña-leaning, although the La Niña event already peaked in January this year.

“It is often the case a strongly established system does not change immediately when it starts to flatten out,” says Johan van den Berg, independent agricultural meteorologist. “Although most Niño areas are already neutral, the important Niño 3.4 area remains La Niña-inclined and is delaying the expected El Niño development. As a result, rainfall conditions in April, and perhaps even May, are likely to remain favourable in the summer rainfall area.”

Longer-term rainfall outlook

The slow development of El Niño could be favourable for rainfall in the latter part of winter, especially in the winter rainfall area, as well as the southern parts of the summer rainfall area.

“However, there are very strong indications of below-average rainfall from November this year to March/April 2027.”

Indian Ocean and tropical cyclones

No active tropical cyclones or tropical storms are currently observed in the entire Indian Ocean, except for a weak system north-west of Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole Index shifted from strongly negative during the period June to December 2025 to slightly positive by the end of February 2026.

“A positive index value is unfavourable for rainfall over Southern Africa and a negative value is favourable for rainfall. This puts a damper on the favourable influence of La Niña trends on rainfall.”