Above-average rain is expected over most parts of the country during the autumn and early winter season, while the South African Weather Service warns below-normal rainfall is possible over the southwestern parts of the country.
By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
The southwestern parts of the country, which normally receive significant rainfall during autumn and early winter, are expected to receive mostly below-normal rainfall during this period. Decision-makers and farmers in these parts of the country are encouraged to prioritise water conservation and apply good harvesting and storage practices as well as appropriate farming practices, says the South African Weather Service.
However, according to the Eastern Cape Weather Service’s seasonal weather forecast, above-normal rainfall is expected during autumn and early winter for most other parts of the country, including the southern and eastern coastal areas. “This is likely to have positive impacts on crop and livestock production. However, there is an increased risk of waterlogging and/or crop damage, and harvest time may be delayed in areas receiving excessive rainfall.”
Water losses may increase in southwestern parts
According to the report issued on 4 March 2026, the expected below-normal rainfall along with predicted above-average minimum and maximum temperatures over the southwestern parts of the country could increase water losses during autumn and early winter.
Also read: Wet start to March expected for summer rainfall region
Flooding possible in parts
Above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures are forecast throughout the country, except in parts of the Free State as well as the Northern and Eastern Cape where below-average maximum temperatures are expected from this month until May.
“The expected above-average rainfall over the rest of the country is likely to increase dam levels and improve groundwater recharge, relieving pressure on water-scarce regions in the southeastern and eastern coastal areas of the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.”
The increased groundwater recharge and runoff into dams and other reservoirs could consequently raise water levels. Stormwater and sewer systems could be overwhelmed and flash floods and inundation could occur in flood-prone areas, including low-lying bridges, the weather service warns.
Also read: How to protect your crops from extreme weather – Dr Zoleka Ncoyini
Regional forecast
The Eastern Cape Weather Service is predicting above-normal rainfall for the entire Eastern Cape into early winter. However, it should be noted that the interior of the province is not a winter rainfall region and therefore the above-normal rainfall may not result in large volumes of rainfall.
Here is the forecast for the different areas in the province:
Winterberg and surrounding areas
Above-normal rainfall is expected but this is a summer rainfall region and therefore only a limited impact may be seen.
Gamtoos / Kouga region / Nelson Mandela Bay metro area
Above-normal rainfall is expected.
Gariep Dam (Nooitgedacht system) area
Above-normal rainfall is expected but, as this area is also a summer rainfall region, the impact may be limited.
Klein Karoo (Klein Karoo / Steytlerville / Jansenville and surrounding areas)
Above-normal rainfall is possible although a limited impact may be seen as this area is also a summer rainfall region.
And the El Niño phenomenon?
According to the weather service, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a weak La Niña condition. By the end of winter in the Southern Hemisphere the ENSO could return to neutral conditions, after which an El Niño condition could potentially develop rapidly.
“It is still too early to say with certainty how the predicted El Niño event will affect the summer rainfall season. However, it is recommended that users who may be affected stay informed of the ENSO forecasts in the coming months.”
Also read: El Niño: Strong indications of below-average rainfall
