Chances for further rainfall over the summer rainfall region are favourable from 13 March, while the winter rainfall region could experience very hot conditions until 18 March.
By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
While conditions in the Western and Northern Cape are sweltering this week due to a heatwave, maximum temperatures are more moderate elsewhere in the country.
Rainfall recorded towards the end of last week ranged from 50mm to more than 100mm over parts of the Northern Cape, Free State, Mpumalanga and Limpopo. Rainfall of less than 20mm to more than 50mm was measured over North West, parts of KwaZulu-Natal and the eastern parts of the Eastern Cape. Lighter rainfall of around 10mm or less fell in the Western Cape and the adjacent inland areas of the Northern and Eastern Cape.
“The rain will make a valuable contribution to improving grazing conditions, especially in light of the approaching winter,” says Johan van den Berg, an independent agricultural meteorologist. “Although in many cases the rain arrived about two to three weeks too late for parts of the summer grain region, it will still be very beneficial, especially for late plantings.”
Also read: High risk of above-average and below-normal rain in the coming months – weather service
Chances for rainfall
Van den Berg’s weather models indicate chances of rain will improve in the short term from 13 March to around 24 March across most of the summer rainfall region, except for the central to western and southwestern parts of the Northern Cape. The heaviest rainfall is expected over the Free State, Lesotho, the northeastern parts of the Eastern Cape, the southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal, and parts of Mpumalanga. Less rain is expected in the last week of March.
For the winter rainfall region, conditions remain relatively unfavourable, with only light rain expected in the coming weeks.
“Although cold fronts have already started moving into the area, they appear to be only sporadic events. Below-average rainfall is expected until midwinter, and better rainfall may only start occurring from July, when the El Niño phenomenon begins to develop,” explains Van den Berg.
Large parts of the Eastern Cape lie in the transition zone between the winter and summer rainfall regions. In recent weeks, better rainfall has occurred over the area, but a long period of very dry conditions previously led to poor agricultural conditions.
In the central to western and southern parts of the Eastern Cape, agricultural conditions are still poor and considerably more rainfall is needed.
According to Van den Berg, there is a chance of rainfall in these areas from around 16 to 24 March.
“Fairly good rainfall of more than 20mm is possible in the area of Cradock, Jansenville, Graaff-Reinet, Middelburg, Queenstown and Barkly East.”
In the Langkloof, in the area of Joubertina and Kareedouw, only light rainfall of less than 10mm is expected. This is unlikely to make a significant difference to dam levels in the Langkloof. Along parts of the Garden Route, around George and Mossel Bay, only lighter rainfall is expected.
“In the longer term, the chances of rain over the summer rainfall region remain fairly favourable for April and May due to the continued influence of the La Niña phenomenon,” says Van den Berg.
Also read: El Niño: Strong indications of below-average rainfall
