More than four weeks since the war in the Middle East broke out, it remains unclear how long the conflict will continue, how bad the damage to infrastructure will be and how long it will take to undertake repairs in the affected countries.
By Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz)
With each day the war drags on, the negative shock to the world economy grows. For exporting businesses, this is a risk we have to take seriously, and we need to start planning for alternative export markets where conditions permit.
South Africa’s Citrus Season Challenges
We are approaching the citrus export season in South Africa. The challenge for the current year is not only the likely ample domestic supplies but also a recovery in Brazilian output, which will intensify competition against South African products in various export markets.
The same is true for other fruits and berries whose export seasons are fast approaching. Indeed, the Middle East is not the biggest market for South Africa. The region accounted for about 8% of South Africa’s agricultural exports of US$15.1 billion in 2025, according to data from Trade Map.
However, the challenge of accessing the Middle East, at a time when South American fruit produce is also recovering, suggests there may be increased competition, even in other markets where South Africa would ordinarily have increased its volumes during years of shortages in South America.
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Government and Industry Coordination
The path ahead requires that the exporting industries, along with the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, and the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, are in communication about the risks and the prioritisation of new export markets that would have the capacity to absorb the extra produce from South Africa.
The industry must lead the effort to outline the markets where many relationships already exist or are most likely to be established swiftly, and thereafter communicate this information to the relevant policy departments, which can then use the insight to plan and initiate conversations at the government level.
Role of South African Missions Abroad
Importantly, the various economic analysts in South African missions around the world can also do their part by assessing whether, in the regions they serve, there is a possibility of advancing South Africa’s agricultural exports in the near term to avert the challenges posed by the Middle East conflict.
Communication from these missions can be through commodity associations or via the usual channels in Pretoria. Serving the South African business in times of such need is a key part of the country’s economic diplomacy.
Assistance to businesses in these critical times is a key part of showing that South Africa has an effective economic diplomacy policy and can use it to serve businesses, ultimately helping maintain jobs in South Africa.
Beyond this challenge, the Middle East conflict once again exposes the need for South Africa to increase its focus on export diversification. This entails opening as many new export markets as possible to broaden growth opportunities for domestic businesses and reduce the risks associated with overexposure to a small number of markets.
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Future Agricultural Expansion
We should also never forget that South Africa’s longstanding ambition to expand agricultural production through underutilised government-owned land would also lead to a major increase in production.
Therefore, the discussion about the domestic expansion of agricultural production in these new lands cannot be economically sustainable without ensuring we have new export markets to absorb the produce and, ultimately, keep farming businesses profitable.
Ultimately, the risks we are seeing in the Middle East regarding South Africa’s agricultural exports are not a call to disregard this region. It remains a key part of our long-term growth strategy as an export market. What we are facing now is an immediate challenge.
Also read:
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Crude oil could hit $170 a barrel
Pressure on grain farmers as war drives up input costs
