There is a possibility that conditions during this year’s summer grain harvesting period could again be wet. At the same time, weather models indicate a probability of more than 80% that an El Niño event will develop later this year.
By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
Cloudy and rainy conditions occurred over large parts of the country at the end of March. Rainfall ranged from less than 5mm to more than 20mm, with most of the rain falling over parts of the Northern Cape, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, the eastern Free State, Gauteng and North West.
Some farmers, including those in the northern Free State, are concerned that they may again struggle this year to harvest their summer grain crops.
The La Niña event that influenced rainfall during the 2025/26 summer grain season is continuing, as the important Niño 3.4 region is still showing La Niña tendencies, even though sea surface temperatures in the other Niño regions are already within a neutral range, says independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg.
With La Niña still present, it is usually a good sign for rainfall through to May, Van den Berg says. At this time of year, most rainfall typically occurs over the central to western parts of the summer grain production region, as has been seen over the past few weeks.
In the short term, weather models indicate that large parts of the summer rainfall region may receive more rain during the last week of April. It does not appear likely to be heavy, Van den Berg says, although it cannot be ruled out.
He says rainfall during April is often an indication of further rain in May. There is a risk of wetter conditions that could create problems during the grain harvesting period. This must also be seen in the context of good rainfall during the last 10 days of March over parts of the northern and eastern Free State and surrounding areas.
Also read: More rain expected across summer rainfall areas into May
Production and Grazing Conditions
Production conditions generally look good across large parts of the summer rainfall region, although there are also areas where conditions are poor.
In parts of the central and eastern Karoo, grazing conditions are good, with some areas experiencing the best conditions in years. Good rainfall and follow-up showers are creating optimal conditions for the germination of grass and shrub seeds.
Farmers should also be able to establish green forage for the autumn lambing season, Van den Berg says.
At the same time, temperatures are moderate to warm, and night-time temperatures are still above 10°C, which can stimulate growth. Since more than 60% of veld production occurs from February to April, current conditions are helping to support favourable veld production before winter, which will also benefit conditions in spring.
Animal diseases could, however, be a problem and must be managed carefully.
Also read: High risk of above-average and below-normal rain in the coming months – weather service
More Than 80% Certainty of an El Niño Event
Van den Berg says most international weather models indicate a probability of more than 80% that an El Niño event will develop later this year. There is still considerable uncertainty about exactly when this development will take place, but forecasts point to the second half of winter and spring.
Rainfall conditions could continue to vary from very wet to dry until as late as October, or even early November, but it is very likely that the summer rainfall region will receive below-average rainfall. This could be moderated by some rain before and after winter, he says.
It is important for farmers to conserve soil moisture to get through the drier periods.
Also read: El Niño: Strong indications of below-average rainfall
