The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has issued a stark warning over the continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to political unrest in the region, cautioning that delays could trigger a surge in global food prices later this year.
By Lebogang Mashala, editor at African Farming
The strait, a critical corridor for global trade, handles a significant share of the world’s energy supplies and agricultural inputs, including fertilisers. Its prolonged closure is now raising alarm bells across the global food system.
In a publicised podcast interview, FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero said the situation bears worrying similarities to the supply chain disruptions experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic, warning that time is running out to prevent another systemic shock.
“The clock is ticking,” Torero said, stressing the timing is particularly critical as farmers in many parts of the world enter key planting windows.
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Planting Decisions Under Pressure
While the FAO Food Price Index for March remained relatively stable, supported by ample cereal supplies, pressure is beginning to build. According to the FAO, April and May will be decisive months as farmers weigh their options amid uncertainty over fertiliser and energy availability.
Limited access to inputs could force producers to cut back on planted area, reduce fertiliser application or shift to less input-intensive crops. At the same time, rising oil prices may encourage a shift towards biofuel production, further tightening global food supplies.
David Laborde, Director of the FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division, warned the world is already in a fragile position: “We are in an input crisis; we don’t want to make it a catastrophe. The difference depends on the actions we take.”
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A Fragile System At Risk
The FAO estimates that between 20% and 45% of key agricultural inputs move through the Strait of Hormuz, underlining its importance to global food production systems.
If the disruption persists, the consequences could be far-reaching:
- Lower crop yields in the coming seasons due to reduced input use.
- Rising global food commodity prices and retail food inflation.
- Increased financial pressure on farmers already operating on thin margins.
For many producers, particularly in developing countries, reduced access to fertiliser could mean the difference between a viable harvest and financial distress.
FAO also warned that fertiliser and energy markets are highly inelastic, meaning even small disruptions in supply can lead to sharp price spikes.
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Avoiding Past Mistakes
The organisation cautioned governments against implementing export restrictions on fertilisers and energy – measures that worsened global food price spikes during previous crises.
Instead, the FAO is calling for coordinated global action, including a careful review of biofuel mandates that may divert crops away from food production, and increased financial support for countries struggling to secure critical inputs.
Torero pointed to mechanisms such as the International Monetary Fund’s balance of payments facilities and its Food Shock Window as potential tools to help countries finance urgent fertiliser imports without distorting markets.
The FAO has also developed a system based on the crop calendar to prioritise countries most at risk, ensuring limited supplies are directed where they are needed most.
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A Preventable Crisis
Unlike climate-related shocks, such as El Niño, Torero emphasised the current situation is within human control.
“The risks are very clear,” he said. “If we don’t accelerate action, they will only worsen.”
With global conditions already strained and the possibility of a strong El Niño event looming, the FAO warned the world could be heading towards a “perfect storm” of supply disruptions, rising costs and food insecurity.
According to the FAO, the message for farmers on the ground is clear: The decisions made in the coming weeks, both in fields and in policy circles, will shape food production, prices and livelihoods well into the next few seasons.
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