At the current pace of the foot and mouth (FMD) vaccine rollout, which so far has seen only 2.1 million cattle, or roughly 15%, vaccinated, the disease will continue to spread, more farmers will go out of business, and the socio-economic consequences for rural communities and the agricultural economy will deepen significantly.
By Andrew Morphew, spokesperson for FMD Response SA
Now more than ever, the public and private sectors must work together to get vaccines into cattle quickly and widely enough to stop transmission by achieving herd immunity, which will only be reached when enough cattle are protected at the same time to interrupt the spread of the virus between herds.
In South Africa’s case, with cattle population of approximately 14 million animals, the vast majority need to be vaccinated within a six-to-eight week window if transmission is to be meaningfully reduced.
Recent experience in KwaZulu Natal has shown what is possible. A team of just 34 private veterinarians demonstrated the ability to vaccinate up to 50 000 cattle per day. At that rate, the national target becomes achievable within two months, or potentially within 30 days if operations are scaled and run continuously.
Vaccinating large numbers of cattle over the course of a year will not stop transmission. Equally, vaccinating quickly without reaching enough of the herd has the same limitation. Both speed and sufficient coverage must work together within a defined timeframe.
The reason for this timeframe is biological. If vaccination takes place over many months, immunity develops unevenly. Some herds become protected while others remain exposed, allowing the virus to continue circulating. By the time later regions are vaccinated, immunity in earlier vaccinated herds may already begin declining, particularly as vaccine protection typically lasts between four and six months in the absence of a structured booster programme.
From a farm level perspective, this creates a costly and unsustainable cycle in which producers carry the burden of repeated outbreaks without fully stopping the disease.
The Department of Agriculture has taken important steps in establishing a national response, including procuring vaccines and proposing a framework that allows for broader participation. These are necessary foundations, but the next phase must focus on translating this framework into a delivery model capable of operating at the required speed and scale.
This is where practical considerations become critical.
First, procurement must operate at scale. South Africa does not have a vaccination capacity problem. It has a procurement constraint. Vaccine supply is still moving through a limited number of channels, which restricts how quickly doses can enter the country and reach the field.
This is the bottleneck on which the rest of the response depends. Speed at the farm level is irrelevant if supply cannot enter the system fast enough.
No national vaccination programme of this scale can rely on a single procurement pathway. To vaccinate 14 million cattle within a defined window, multiple supply channels must operate in parallel, bringing vaccine into the country continuously ahead of the campaign.
This requires allowing capable private sector participants, including veterinary networks and established distributors, to procure and distribute vaccines under regulated conditions. These systems already exist. They are used every day to move veterinary products across the country at scale.
Without expanding procurement beyond a single channel, supply will remain the limiting factor. The vaccination window will not be met.
Second, delivery capacity must match the scale of the challenge. South Africa already has an extensive network of private veterinarians, dairy systems, feedlots, commercial farming operations and agricultural logistics providers. These networks understand local conditions, herd locations and biosecurity requirements, and they represent a substantial operational advantage if fully incorporated into the response.
Third, coordination across regions will be essential. Vaccination must occur in a synchronised manner that limits transmission between partially protected areas. This requires alignment across provinces, prioritisation of high risk areas and clear implementation timelines.
Fourth, transparent data and reporting systems will play an important enabling role. Regular updates on doses delivered, cattle vaccinated and areas experiencing backlog allow both government and industry to respond quickly where gaps emerge. In a fast-moving outbreak, delays in information can directly translate into delays in containment.
International experience provides valuable lessons. Countries such as Brazil and Argentina successfully controlled FMD through large scale, time bound vaccination programmes supported by close coordination between governments and commercial agriculture, together with structured booster campaigns. The lesson for South Africa is clear: Herd level protection can only be achieved through vaccination delivered at speed and scale.
Farmers across the country remain deeply concerned about the impact of this disease on their cattle and dairy herds. For dairy farmers, FMD reduces milk production, increases operational costs and affects long term herd health. For beef producers, outbreaks disrupt movement, limit export market access and create severe financial losses. For many small-scale farmers, cattle represent their primary store of wealth, meaning outbreaks can push already vulnerable communities deeper into poverty.
The economic and social cost of FMD is already visible across rural communities and the broader agricultural economy. The path to control is not unclear.
Herd immunity is not the product of doses delivered across many months. It is the product of vaccination delivered at speed and at sufficient scale, within a defined window.
Until procurement is able to operate at that scale, the window will not be met. The virus will continue to spread through South Africa’s cattle.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of African Farming.
Also read:
FMD | Industry calls for private sector help to procure and distribute vaccines
From our editor: When progress doesn’t reach the farmer
FMD: ‘The virus does not care about factions or blame-shifting’
