After a few years of a challenging environment, the South African poultry industry currently enjoys affordable feed prices. While these lower price levels may persist for some time, the longer-term outlook is concerning.
By Wandile Sihlobo
There are expectations of an El Niño return in the 2026–27 production season, which may weigh on crop production and lead to a surge in feed prices.
But if we put this aside for a moment and reflect on the current reality, the environment is comforting. By mid-April 2026, yellow maize prices were down roughly 30% from a year ago, while soya bean prices were down 12% from the same period last year. This decline in prices is due to ample grain supplies in the 2024–25 season.
Fortunately, the 2025–26 production season’s crop also promises to be excellent, which should keep prices under pressure for some time.
Strong harvest prospects
South Africa’s 2025–26 maize production estimate stands at 16.5 million tons. While this is 1% lower than the previous season, it remains well above the long-term average.
Importantly, the expected harvest exceeds South Africa’s annual maize consumption of about 12 million tons. The slight decline from the previous year is largely due to lower yields in some regions, despite larger plantings.
The projected crop consists of approximately 8.8 million tons of white maize and 7.7 million tons of yellow maize.
Such a harvest, together with likely large carryover stocks from the current season, means South Africa is expected to remain a net exporter of maize during the 2026–27 marketing year, which begins in May and corresponds with the 2025–26 production season.
Soya beans add to supply comfort
The outlook for soya beans is similarly encouraging.
South Africa’s 2025–26 soya bean harvest is estimated at 2.7 million tons. Although this is 4% lower than the previous year due to expected poor yields in some production areas, it remains well above the long-term average.
A harvest of this size should keep South Africa in a net-exporting position and contribute to adequate feed supplies for the livestock and poultry industries.
Poultry sector benefits
For poultry producers, these favourable grain supplies translate into lower feed costs, which is positive for profitability and helps support stable consumer prices.
The demand for poultry products should also remain firm as consumers continue to favour more affordable protein options in a challenging economic environment.
The combination of ample grain supplies and steady consumer demand creates a relatively positive operating environment for the poultry industry in the short term.
Watching the weather
These ample maize supplies place South Africa in a strong position over the coming months.
Had it not been for concerns about a possible El Niño event, there would be reason to believe that the period of lower feed prices could continue for some time.
However, the possibility of El Niño developing later in the year could alter this outlook significantly. The weather phenomenon is often associated with drier conditions in Southern Africa and could negatively affect crop production during the next season.
For now, poultry producers can take comfort in favourable feed costs and strong grain supplies. The challenge will be monitoring weather developments closely as the industry prepares for the 2026–27 production season.
Source: Poultry Bulletin June/July 2026
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