The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) has revised its 2026 citrus export forecast downward, citing lower-than-expected volumes in several key varieties as growers deal with a challenging production and export season.
By Maile Matsimela, digital editor at African Farming
The association announced on Wednesday, 5 August, it has reduced its total export estimate from the pre-season forecast of 209.4 million 15 kg cartons to 205.3 million cartons, following the latest assessments by its variety focus groups.
The industry is now in its busiest export period, with delays persisting at the Port of Durban.
Mandarins and Navels record biggest declines
The largest downward adjustments have been made to the Mandarin and Navel orange categories, the CGA said.
The Mandarin estimate has been reduced by 2.7 million cartons after the completion of Nova and Leanri harvesting. Packing operations are now focused on late-season varieties, including Orri, Nadorcott and Tango.
Navel orange exports have been revised downward by 4.6 million cartons compared with the original March estimate. While increased rainfall in the Eastern Cape produced larger fruit sizes, around 75% of the crop has already been packed, with fewer than six million cartons of Late Navels still to be harvested.
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Valencia outlook remains relatively stable
The outlook for Valencia oranges has changed little since the start of the season. The CGA said strong yields in the northern production regions have largely offset smaller crops in the Eastern and Western Cape. Packing is expected to reach its peak over the next two to three weeks, while higher volumes of fruit are also being diverted to juice processors.
The association expects the Valencia export season to continue slightly longer than usual.
Grapefruit declines while lemons outperform expectations
Grapefruit exports have also been revised downward by 1.7 million cartons.
Packing has already concluded in the northern regions, while operations in the Orange River and KwaZulu-Natal production areas are nearing completion. The CGA noted lower Class 1 and Class 2 volumes have resulted in more fruit being directed to processing factories. In contrast, lemons continue to exceed expectations.
The association has increased its lemon export estimate by 5.4 million cartons compared with the original forecast. Most production regions have completed harvesting, with some Eastern Cape packhouses reporting that less than 10% of their crop remains to be packed.
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Growers continue to face mounting pressures
The CGA said growers have endured a difficult season due to a combination of weather-related losses, rising production costs and challenging market conditions.
Flooding in parts of the Western and Eastern Cape, particularly in the Patensie region, affected production, while increasing input costs and weaker market prices have placed additional pressure on farm profitability.
International factors have further complicated exports. The association said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt one of South Africa’s most important citrus markets, which traditionally receives about 20% of the country’s citrus exports. The conflict has also contributed to higher diesel prices, increased shipping costs and longer transit times, reducing market efficiency.
The CGA warned any expansion of instability into the Red Sea region or disruptions at the Port of Jeddah could further limit shipping options for South African exporters.
Focus shifts to maintaining quality
With export volumes now at their seasonal peak, the CGA has urged everyone across the citrus value chain to maintain strict quality standards.
The association said ensuring the right fruit reaches the right market in the best possible condition remains essential to protecting South Africa’s reputation as one of the world’s leading citrus exporters during the remainder of the 2026 season.
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