South African farmers should prepare for the possibility of a hotter and drier summer, with the latest climate outlook indicating a greater than 95% probability of El Niño conditions developing.
By Maile Matsimela, digital editor at African Farming
A South African Weather Service (SAWS) weather discussion presented by Lungile Makondo at the Sernick Emerging Farmer’s Day on 7 August indicated that El Niño is associated with warmer-than-normal tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, which increase the likelihood of warmer conditions over Southern Africa and below-normal summer rainfall.
Makondo said the latest outlook points to a “high likelihood of an El Niño, with over 95% probability”. The outlook also highlights a higher risk of hot and dry conditions across the region.
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Very strong El Niño indicated
The projections suggest that the developing El Niño could become very strong.
The ensemble mean Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is projected at about +2.1°C for July to September 2026, increasing to around +2.9°C during October to December.
The scale in the presentation classified an anomaly of +2°C or higher as a “very strong” ElNiño. The forecasts remain in the very strong category for January to March 2027 before weakening to strong during February to April and moderate during March to May.
The July 2026 forecast is based on 26 models – 15 dynamical and 11 statistical – with equal weighting used to calculate the ensemble mean.
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Rainfall outlook deteriorates towards summer
Despite the El Niño threat, the rainfall picture is not immediately dry.
The SAWS outlook indicates above-normal rainfall for the period from August to October. However, the effects associated with El Niño and below-normal rainfall are expected to begin appearing from September to November over parts of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape.
From October to December, these conditions are expected to spread across much of South Africa, including the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, Western Cape, North West, Gauteng, Limpopo and Mpumalanga.
Temperatures are another concern. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal throughout the August-to-December period.
Also read: From wet fields to dry forecasts for summer grains
What El Niño could mean for farmers
The agricultural consequences could become significant should the hotter and drier conditions persist.
Makondo highlighted an increased risk of agricultural drought, declining soil moisture and greater crop stress. Grazing and veld conditions could also deteriorate, placing livestock under pressure, while demand on available water resources increases.
Ultimately, these conditions could result in a decline in agricultural production. Livestock farmers in particular could face a combination of reduced grazing productivity, limited water availability and heat stress if dry conditions persist.
However, farmers enter the possible El Niño period with some buffers. Moisture is slightly better following the previous two La Niña seasons, which could assist with seed germination and early crop establishment, according to the presentation.
Dam levels are also described as healthy across the country, potentially providing some relief to irrigation-dependent fruit and vegetable producers. Even in the event of a harsh summer drought, maize supplies are expected to remain sufficient to meet domestic consumption requirements.
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Farmers urged to conserve water
With uncertainty remaining over exactly how conditions will unfold at farm level, Makondo urged producers to prepare and continuously monitor conditions during the season.
Farmers are advised to practice soil and water conservation and increase water storage and harvesting where possible. They should also closely monitor rainfall, soil moisture, grazing conditions and water availability throughout the season.
For crop and livestock farmers, the message is therefore not that drought is inevitable, but that the risk of a difficult summer has increased significantly – making early preparation increasingly important.
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