South African farmers have been warned: The coming summer production season could be a difficult one. The latest climate outlook points to a greater than 95% probability of El Niño conditions, bringing an increased risk of hotter and drier conditions and below-normal summer rainfall.
By Maile Matsimela, digital editor at African Farming
For farmers, this should not be a reason to panic. It should be a reason to prepare. We have been here before, and history has shown just how quickly prolonged heat and poor rainfall can turn into a crisis on the farm.
The 2015/16 drought remains one of the clearest reminders. South Africa recorded just 403 mm of rainfall in 2015, at the time the lowest annual rainfall in the country’s 112-year record. Crop farmers struggled to plant in some areas, grazing deteriorated and livestock producers were forced to reduce herds as feed and water became scarce.
Also read: El Niño probability above 95%: Find out what it means for farmers
In KwaZulu-Natal, provincial authorities reported about 40 000 cattle had died by November 2015. In the Free State, more than 109 000 large-stock units were affected and maize production was also severely hit. By 2016, government was describing it as South Africa’s worst drought since 1992, with seven provinces having declared drought disasters.
Drought continued to affect different parts of the country in subsequent years. The Western Cape experienced three consecutive years of below-normal rainfall between 2015 and 2017, culminating in the water crisis that brought Cape Town close to “Day Zero” in 2018.
The coming season may not follow exactly the same path. But those years taught agriculture an important lesson: Waiting until the drought has arrived is waiting too long.
Also read: How to protect your crops from extreme weather – Dr Zoleka Ncoyini
Crop farmers should plan before planting
For crop farmers, preparation starts before the seed goes into the ground.
The concern is not only whether enough rain falls to plant, but whether sufficient moisture will be available to carry the crop through critical stages of development.
Farmers should therefore assess soil moisture, planting dates, cultivar choices and the number of hectares they can realistically plant if rainfall becomes erratic. This may be a season when managing risk is more important than chasing maximum hectares.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned that warmer and drier conditions can reduce soil moisture, increase crop stress and ultimately affect agricultural production. Farmers should conserve as much soil moisture as possible, minimise unnecessary water losses and make provision for water harvesting and storage.
There is some good news. Soil moisture going into the season is slightly better following the previous two La Niña seasons, while dam levels are described as healthy across the country. But those reserves should be protected.
Also read: Expert advice | Turn rainwater into profit – smart water storage strategies for farms of all sizes
Livestock farmers must prepare before the veld turns brown
Livestock farmers should be asking equally important questions. How many animals can the farm carry if rainfall is below normal? How much grazing is available? How much feed is in reserve? Are boreholes, reservoirs and drinking troughs ready for a hot summer?
Drought management should begin while animals are still in good condition.
If grazing deteriorates, farmers can quickly find themselves buying increasingly expensive supplementary feed. When many producers are looking for feed at the same time, the pressure becomes even greater.
Farmers should assess stocking rates now and determine beforehand when they would begin supplementary feeding or reduce livestock numbers. Selling animals while they are still in good condition gives a farmer more options than being forced to sell after the veld has deteriorated and animals have already lost condition.
Also read: Reduce heat stress in farm animals to maintain production
Do not underestimate extreme heat
The other warning farmers should take seriously is heat. SAWS expects above-normal temperatures during the months leading into summer.
High temperatures combined with limited rainfall can place enormous pressure on crops, livestock and water resources. For livestock, heat stress can increase water requirements and place additional pressure on animals. Farmers should ensure reliable access to clean drinking water and provide shade where practical.
This is also the time to inspect boreholes, pumps, reservoirs, pipes and troughs. A broken pump during normal conditions is an inconvenience. A broken pump during extreme summer heat can quickly become an emergency.
Also read: Talk to your bank sooner rather than later in times of drought
Prepare while there is still time
No farmer can control the weather, and nobody can say with certainty that the coming season will become another 2015/16. But farmers can control how prepared they are.
SAWS is already advising producers to conserve soil and water, improve water storage and harvesting, and closely monitor rainfall, soil moisture, grazing and water availability throughout the season. The lessons from previous droughts are clear.
Crop farmers should reconsider planting risk and protect available soil moisture. Livestock farmers should assess grazing, stocking rates and feed reserves. Every farmer should check water infrastructure and have a plan for what happens if the rain arrives late or stops earlier than expected.
Do not wait until the crop is wilting. Do not wait until the veld is finished. Do not wait until animals begin losing condition or the dam is nearly empty. The warning has come before the new season. Farmers should use that time to prepare.
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