South African agriculture has shown remarkable resilience, but the road ahead brings both opportunities and challenges. BFAP’s Baseline 2026 report highlights what must be done today to ensure the sector continues to grow and thrive towards 2050.
By Maphuti Mongatane, business development manager at African Farming
South African agriculture has quietly achieved something remarkable. Since the launch of the National Development Plan in 2012, the sector has grown by an average of about 3% a year, compared with less than 1% annual growth in the broader economy. According to the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy’s (BFAP’s) Baseline 2026 report, this performance reflects a sector that has continued to improve productivity, strengthen its position in international trade and supply food to South African consumers despite significant local and global disruptions.
Although the numbers tell a story of resilience, BFAP’s latest outlook also makes it clear that the next decade will require some important decisions. For the first time, the annual Baseline extends its outlook to 2050, looking beyond the immediate challenges facing farmers to the bigger forces that could shape the future of South African agriculture.
For farmers, these forces are not distant policy issues. Climate variability, animal disease, infrastructure, technology, changing consumer behaviour, international trade, natural resources, transformation and governance will increasingly influence what farmers produce, how they produce it and whether they can remain profitable.
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Good news for some sectors
There is encouraging news for the country’s grain and oilseed farmers. BFAP expects South Africa’s grain and oilseed sectors to remain in surplus over the outlook period, with future production growth expected to come primarily from improved yields rather than significant expansion of cultivated land. This places an even greater emphasis on productivity, technology, genetics, soil management, mechanisation and the ability of farmers to make every hectare work harder.
The livestock sector also has room for optimism. As supply recovers and feed prices normalise, several livestock industries are expected to move into a more profitable phase. By 2035, the real gross production value of livestock is projected to be 4.4% above the 2023–2025 base period. South Africa has also made progress towards becoming a net exporter across several livestock industries, with pork and poultry remaining the major net imports.
However, farmers are still operating in a difficult short-term environment. Disease outbreaks continue to affect livestock industries and exports, and declining commodity price cycles and rising input costs are putting pressure on margins in field crops and horticulture. Port constraints, particularly at the Port of Cape Town, remain a challenge for perishable exports, and the return of El Niño conditions in 2026/27 raises concerns about crop yields and livestock feed costs.
Despite these pressures, BFAP believes the medium-term outlook is more positive. Continued technological advancement, improved disease management, more normal global input markets and progress in port operations could support real growth in agricultural GDP. With South African consumers under continued pressure, exports are expected to remain a key driver of value creation for farmers.
But exporting is becoming increasingly complex. South Africa is pursuing new market opportunities, including progress in negotiations with major economies such as China and India, while facing rising protectionism, geopolitical tensions and increasingly demanding non-tariff barriers. For fresh produce exporters, environmental, social and governance (ESG) requirements in international markets are becoming particularly important, with carbon footprints emerging as a growing consideration across the value chain.
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The affordability challenge
Perhaps one of the most important findings in the Baseline 2026 report, however, is that South Africa’s food-security challenge is no longer simply about whether the country produces enough food. The country has a productive agricultural sector capable of meeting domestic demand and competing internationally, yet many households still cannot afford a healthy and diversified diet.
The problem is increasingly one of access. Rising transport, housing, electricity and other essential costs, along with debt repayments, are putting pressure on household disposable income and leaving less money available for food. In other words, South Africa can produce enough food and still have a food-security problem if people cannot afford to buy it.
Looking towards 2050, BFAP identifies governance and institutional capacity as perhaps the most important factor cutting across all the others. Climate resilience requires effective institutions. Biosecurity requires functioning systems. Export growth depends on efficient infrastructure and ports. Transformation requires implementation, and technological advancement requires an environment in which farmers can invest and innovate.
Turning potential into progress
The BFAP Baseline 2026 report is therefore both encouraging and challenging. South African agriculture has shown it can outperform the broader economy and remain globally competitive even under difficult conditions. There are significant opportunities ahead, particularly in grains, oilseeds, livestock, horticulture, agro-processing and exports.
But the opportunity will only become reality if the sector continues to invest, innovate and work together as farmers, agribusinesses, government, financial institutions, researchers and the next generation of agricultural entrepreneurs.
The question now is not whether South African agriculture has potential. It clearly does. The bigger question is whether we will make the right decisions today to ensure potential is still being realised in 2050.
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