Much has been written recently about the looming change in weather conditions, as the tropical Pacific has switched from La Niña to an El Niño state. Why does this matter? Historically, La Niña has brought favourable conditions to South Africa, whereas El Niño conditions have come to be associated with warm and dry weather across much of Southern Africa, including South Africa’s major crop-production regions. The intensity of the current El Niño is expected to build over the coming months, with forecasts pointing to a more than 60% chance of a very intense, or “super El Niño” event.
By Dr Tracy Davids, director at BFAP, leading the Commodity Markets and Foresight programme
To consider the potential impact of this expected super El Niño on summer crop prices, one must consider a number of questions. Firstly, what will the impact on rainfall be? Secondly, how strong will the effect on crop yields and subsequent production be? And thirdly, how does this impact prices of the major crops used in animal-feed production?,
The first is less straightforward than it may seem. While it’s true that some of South Africa’s major droughts have come in El Niño years, the relationship is not linear, as many El Niño events in the past have also been associated with milder weather impacts. Considering data from the 1920s to present, it is certainly true that the probability of drought conditions rises in El Niño years, but there is no guarantee of drought. In fact the last century has shown that the probability of receiving under 450mm of rain rises to 44% in El Niño years, compared to 14% and 11% respectively in neutral and La Niña years.
SA’s summer crop stocks are strong following bumper crops in 2025 and 2026, which bolsters availability.
Even if one assumes a dry season in 2026/27, many factors suggest that producers are better placed now to deal with such impacts than a decade ago. Seed technology has developed; production practices have adapted and the late rainfall in 2026 has left many key production regions with ample soil moisture going into the season. All of these have the potential to soften yield impacts.
Lastly, South Africa’s summer crop stocks are strong following two consecutive bumper crops in 2025 and 2026. This bolsters availability, even if yield impacts are severe, thereby also mitigating some of the potential price impacts that may otherwise be expected. Without downplaying the potential impact of a strong El Niño, which has been evident in several previous seasons, there are many mitigating factors that may soften its blow for livestock producers in 2027. If it persists beyond that, risks will certainly rise further.
This article first appeared in Poultry Bulletin (Issue 33) August/September 2026 and is republished with permission. Click the cover below for the full edition.
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