Cattle farmers should use the relatively good grazing and water reserves currently available to prepare for the possibility of a drier summer rather than waiting for conditions to deteriorate, says Jaco Liebenberg, technical manager for feedlots and farms at the Beefmaster Group.
By Maile Matsimela, digital editor at African Farming
With the possibility of El Niño conditions affecting South Africa in the coming months, cattle producers, particularly those in summer rainfall regions, are being urged to assess their grazing, water and feed resources and develop plans for different rainfall scenarios.
Jaco Liebenberg, technical manager: feedlot and farms at Beefmaster Group, says there is no need for farmers to panic. However, preparation and early decision-making could make a significant difference if rainfall falls below expectations.
“The success of drought management in the cattle industry depends on three things: forward planning, informed decision-making and timely action when it is necessary,” says Liebenberg.
Also read: El Niño probability above 95%: Find out what it means for farmers
Grazing could come under pressure
For cattle producers, one of the biggest risks associated with a dry summer is the effect on natural grazing.
Liebenberg says rainfall during September and October is expected to remain around average in many areas, but conditions could become drier from November. Should El Niño develop and peak around December, below-average rainfall could potentially persist into March and April 2027.
“For cattle farmers, the most significant concern is the potential impact on natural grazing, which most cattle farmers rely on. Rainfall has a direct impact on resources available to them,” he says.
Reduced rainfall could also affect grain production, particularly in dryland production areas, potentially adding further pressure to feed availability and costs.
High temperatures present another challenge. Heat stress can affect fertility, while declining body condition during prolonged dry periods can negatively affect animal growth and reproductive performance.
Liebenberg says research has shown that pregnancy rates can decline by about 20% to 27% under stressful conditions, while significant differences in weaning weights have also been observed during dry periods.
“We have seen variances of about 42% in weaning weight during dry periods,” he says.
Breed and animal adaptability also play an important role, with indigenous breeds generally better equipped to cope with harsh conditions than some European and British breeds.
Farmers enter the season in a stronger position
Despite the risks, Liebenberg believes many cattle farmers are entering the 2026/27 season from a relatively favourable position.
Late rainfall has helped maintain grazing, while water levels in many boreholes and dams are relatively good. This gives producers an opportunity to prepare while resources are still available.
“We are going into 2026 and 2027 in a relatively strong position, with better reserves and production levels. We have had late rains, relatively good water levels in boreholes and dams, and sufficient pastures for grazing,” says Liebenberg.
“That means we are better placed to navigate the impact should conditions deteriorate.”
However, the impact of El Niño can differ considerably between regions, and it remains uncertain how long any dry conditions could persist. Farmers should therefore plan for several possible scenarios rather than relying on a single rainfall outlook.
Also read: Farmers face a tough season, but preparation is the best defence
Know what resources you have
Liebenberg advises farmers to start by taking stock of what is currently available on the farm.
This should include the amount and condition of grazing, available water, supplementary feed and infrastructure. Water availability alone, for example, is not enough if a farmer does not have the infrastructure required to get that water to livestock.
“That includes understanding if you have the infrastructure to access your water – such as with dams or rivers – and whether you have enough feed or grazing to carry your herd through a dry period,” he says.
Farmers should then establish clear trigger points that determine when action must be taken.
Instead of waiting until grazing or water reaches critical levels, producers could decide beforehand at what point they would begin supplementary feeding, rent additional grazing or start reducing livestock numbers.
“Ask yourself: at what point do I need to act?” says Liebenberg. “Having trigger points established beforehand means you are not trying to make a major decision when you are already under pressure.”
Also read: WATCH | El Niño outlook for the coming production season – Wandile Sihlobo
Decide early which animals to keep
If conditions deteriorate to the point where herd numbers have to be reduced, knowing which animals should leave the farm first is important.
Good production and financial records can help farmers identify their most productive animals and determine which cattle generate the best return from the available land.
Liebenberg says farmers should know their break-even point and understand what it costs to produce a kilogram of beef.
At the same time, producers should identify and protect the core breeding animals responsible for the genetic progress of the herd. If cattle must be sold, retaining the best-performing breeding animals can help protect the farm’s longer-term productivity.
Early decisions can also have financial benefits. Waiting until a drought is severe may mean selling cattle when many other farmers are doing the same, potentially placing pressure on livestock prices.
Five ways to prepare for a dry summer
Liebenberg recommends five priorities for cattle producers:
- Act before conditions become critical. Establish trigger points and make decisions early rather than waiting until grazing, water or feed has been depleted.
- Keep accurate records. Use financial, production and grazing records to understand costs and identify the animals delivering the best return per hectare.
- Protect the core breeding herd. Identify the animals that are central to the breeding programme and genetic progress of the herd before deciding what to sell.
- Manage grazing carefully. Protect soil and grazing resources through sound veld management and practices such as rotational grazing so that the farm is better able to recover when rainfall returns.
- Select cattle suited to the environment. Fertility, heat tolerance, grazing efficiency and adaptability should form part of breeding and selection decisions.
Farmers should also consider the financial implications of different scenarios before they occur. Liebenberg recommends engaging early with financial advisers, banks, insurers and agricultural specialists where necessary.
“Get the insights you need to inform your decisions,” he says. “Panic often leads to poor decisions. If you have a plan and know what your options are, you are in a much better position to act if the time comes.”
For Liebenberg, drought preparedness ultimately comes down to using periods of relative abundance to prepare for more difficult conditions.
“Being like the ants, not the grasshopper, in the classic children’s fable about the power of preparation, can put farmers in a stronger position to navigate uncertainty, no matter what the weather brings,” he concludes.
Also read: Study finds droughts devastate SA’s communal livestock owners
