South Africa’s 2026–27 winter crop is estimated at 2.67 million tonnes, up 2% year-on-year. The figure comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. This is according to the Crop Estimates Committee’s second 2026–27 winter crop production estimates, which were released on Tuesday, 29 September 2026.
By Wandile Sihlobo, agricultural economist at Agbiz
But if we set aside all other crops, which are up notably from the 2025-26 season because of increased area planted, and focus on wheat, the picture is worrying. South Africa’s 2026–27 winter wheat harvest is estimated at 1.81 million tonnes, down 5% year on year. This is the lowest harvest in eight years.
The decline in area planted, combined with the prospect of poor yields due to dryness in parts of the Western Cape over the past few months, is a major factor behind the expected lower harvest.
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Wheat imports could rise to 2.0 million tonnes
Consequently, South Africa will likely increase wheat imports to around 2.0 million tonnes, up from 1.8 million tonnes last season. Indeed, production figures may still change as the season continues. After all, we are still in the second round of production estimates, and eight more estimates are to follow.
Still, based on what we have observed on the ground and insights from farmers, we are more convinced the 2026–27 season will remain challenging for wheat, and the country’s import requirements will be higher going forward.
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Global wheat supplies remain solid
Global wheat supplies remain broadly solid. For example, this month, the International Grains Council placed the 2026–27 global wheat production forecast at 820 million tonnes.
Looking at this figure year on year may be worrying, signalling a 3% drop from the 2025-26 season. But over the long term, a harvest of 820 million tonnes is well above the long-term level of about 790 million tonnes.
The only near-term challenge, and the major driver of price increases, is disruption to shipping infrastructure in Ukraine because of the Russia-Ukraine war.
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