Chances are slim that an El Niño will develop in the next few months

According to the latest climate outlook model, chances are slimming that the El Niño will be revived in the next few months.
At the middle of July, the ocean temperatures in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean, indicated El Niño or La Niña in a neutral phase.

Ocean temperatures on the east side were on the verge of an official El Niño, but atmospheric conditions was still neutral, said the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).


The weather predictors concluded that the neutral situation would continue though Autumn (South African spring). The chances of the El Niño officially developing is estimated between 35% and 40%, with the chances pf neutral conditions being above 50%.

The rainfall predictions for South Africa’s late winter (from July and August) is still uncertain, especially for the winter rainfall, said the South African Weather services in the latest seasonal outlook.

There is also an indication for above average rainfall in the early spring (from August to October) in the far western parts of the country. The weather services confirmed that the reoccurrence of El Niño has declined.

According to the American Climate Prediction Centre there is a slight chance of above average rainfall over small areas in the eastern and southern Africa during spring and summer. There are however also chances for below-average rainfall over portions in Botswana and Zimbabwe and the northern parts of South Africa that can expect below average rainfall.

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