There is an increased chance of La Niña conditions developing during the remaining spring months and summer, predictions from the US Climate Prediction Centre show.
According to the latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion issued by the CPC, predictions show that a La Niña system can form as early as spring until the end of summer. There is an increased chance – between 55-60% – of La Niña conditions expected. Earlier predictions favoured ENSO-neutral conditions during the coming summer.
The service said the new development is partly due to the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperatures and because of more accurate forecasting during this time of year.
La Niña conditions are usually accompanied by wetter conditions over southern Africa.
The latest rainfall guide released by the CPC forecasts above average rainfall over parts of East Africa and the northern areas of southern Africa, including Tanzania, Zambia and the northern parts of Mozambique during spring and summer.
However, portions of southern Africa can expect below-average rainfall, including Angola and Botswana, Zimbabwe and the northern parts of South Africa.
According to the latest South African Weather Service Seasonal Climate Watch, there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall between spring and late spring (between October and December) over the north-eastern parts of South Africa, which covers most of the summer rainfall areas of South Africa.