The snowfall from 20-22 September was one of the heaviest yet in areas around the Drakensberg.

“This snow event was caused by a cold front or at least very cold conditions, with moisture coming from a very strong low-pressure system or cut-off low,” says Johan van den Berg, independent agricultural meteorologist.

“Tropical moisture moved southeastward especially over Botswana, which was absorbed into the cut-off low-pressure system.

“The mountain ranges, such as the Drakensberg, gave additional momentum to the upward movement of moist air, which contributed to heavier snow.”

Van den Berg says although snow is less common in September, there have been heavy falls in the past. “If it’s cold enough and tropical moisture starts moving southeastward as part of the beginning of the summer rainy season, it can cause large amounts of snow where these air masses meet.”

In the short term, snow may occur again from 28-30 September over the mountains of the Western Cape, but especially the Eastern Cape and southern and eastern Drakensberg.

Van den Berg says these conditions could develop as a cold front will move in from the south towards the end of the week and tropical moisture will again move over parts of the summer rainfall region.

“It’s not impossible that it could extend further to the Drakensberg on the border between the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal, although predictions don’t indicate this yet. It’s very important to keep an eye on short-term forecasts for the latest developments.”

Read how farmers can keep their livestock safe during severe cold conditions.

Late snow in 2016, 2017

Van den Berg says snow fell relatively late in 2016 and 2017. In 2016, there were reasonable snowfalls on 17 and 18 September and 2 and 4 October in the Drakensberg and surrounds. In 2017, snow fell on 4, 5, 10 and 26 October and 16 and 27 November, although the latter event was more concentrated over the southern and eastern Drakensberg.

Reasonably heavy snow also fell over the Drakensberg and surrounding areas as far as Gauteng on 18 October 1965, 10 September 1981, 26-28 September 1987, and 11 September and 15-18 October 1990.

Chance of snow until November?

“Based on the history of similar years from the past, there is a very high possibility that further snow and cold conditions may occur over the eastern parts of the country until November this year,” says Van den Berg.

“These conditions could be the precursor to further stormy conditions with strong winds and hail as the seasons change.”